Pole is key to Italian GP success, but history against Hamilton

Conflicting trends are set to give staunch Lewis Hamilton backers food for thought at the forthcoming Italian Grand Prix.

It may be a case of waiting until Saturday’s Q3 timesheets are completed at Monza given the pole sitter has claimed all of the last five and eight of the last 10 race victories around the fastest circuit in Formula One.

But on the flip side, more value could be lurking before any rubber has been laid down at the Cathedral of Speed, based on an equally strong pattern which damages the chances of the man most likely to lead off, taking the chequred flag.

No driver since Hamilton’s fellow Brit Damon Hill in 1993/94, has put back-to-back Italian Grand Prix wins together.

Pole in Belgium made it seven straight heading to Italy for the current world champion, an imperious display of qualifying this season, perforated just once when teammate Nico Rosberg stole a march in Spain.

Can Lewis Hamilton defy recent history at the Italian Grand Prix ?

It’s 1/3 says Hamilton achieves his fourth career Monza pole, which seems a safer bet than the 4/9 the Mercedes man claims a third Italian title in five years, given the weight of times past at the track.

In this respect, Rosberg’s 9/4 odds for a fourth race win in 2015 appeal, though it may just pay dividends to dabble in the far more alluring 14/1 on Sebastian Vettel sending the assembled Ferrari hoards into delirium come Sunday.

The German has two Grand Prix wins under his belt this season and the four-time world champ is chasing his own piece of F1 history this weekend.

Vettel is looking to add to his collection of Monza wins (2008, 2011 and 2013) by matching Stirling Moss’s record of triumphing at the famous circuit with three different teams, having previously taken the honours with Toro Rosso and Red Bull.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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