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Forget The Last Samuri – this is the best 12/1 Grand National bet

| 07.03.2016

The Last Samuri is now one of three 12/1 co-favourites for the Grand National following his 10-length runaway success in the Grimthorpe Stakes at Doncaster.

His appeal for the Aintree showpiece is threefold:

  • He will run off the same mark as he did at Doncaster, which is clearly favourable. The fact Kim Bailey’s eight-year-old has still only had eight chase starts additionally indicates that the horse remains open to further improvement.
  • Renowned horse racing tipster Tom Segal tipped The Last Samuri to win the Grand National last month, suggesting he has bold claims.
  • The Last Samuri seems blessed with both stamina and accurate jumping, which are arguably the leading two attributes needed to tame the Grand National course.
  • However, all of the juice now appears to have gone out of his price, as he shares favouritism with defending champion Many Clouds and Silviniaco Conti.

    And those considering having a bet on any of the Grand National market leaders may discover that the biggest profits are in the pipeline for the latter of this trio.

    While The Last Samuri remains largely inexperienced, Silviniaco Conti is a 10-year-old that has been round the block and back in both directions, being a seven-time Grade 1 winner in a successful career.

    His current mark of 163 is 14lb below that when considered to be at his best back in 2014, but his victory in the Ascot Chase last time proposed that he is far from a horse past his best.

    A breathing operation prior to that contest, alongside the fitting of first-time blinkers, appeared to work the oracle as Silvinaco Conti romped clear in the latter stages to prevail by 20 lengths.

    He also has good record at Aintree with three victories, although each of these were over the slightly easier Mildmay course and not over the National fences.

    What is notable about the Paul Nicholls horse is that he is at his best when getting into a jumping rhythm and a metronomic jumping style is advantageous in the Grand National. It is a race that has the ingredients to play to his strengths.

    Missing the Cheltenham Festival means Silviniaco Conti can now fully prepare for the National and five of the last six winners have been aged 10 or older.

    All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.



    Craig Kemp

    Craig has written for Ladbrokes since the 2010 World Cup, having previously gained a Media & Sports Journalism degree and contributed to publications including the Racing Post. His main areas of interest are horse racing and UFC, but he is also an avid X Factor gambler and likes nothing more than indulging in a spot of Hip Hop Karaoke.