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Germany v Italy: Italian absences hand Germans advantage

| 01.07.2016

When the quarter-final draw was complete, Germany versus Italy was immediately the stand-out fixture, but at the end of what should be a thrilling encounter, it’s Die Mannschaft who should be creeping into the last four.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but it appears pretty much of all us underestimated Italy heading to France, with Antonio Conte’s men arguably the team of the tournament thus far.

Superb 2-0 wins over Belgium and Spain have shown Gli Azzurri at their best, with a squad arguably lacking the quality of previous Italian outfits.

The 1968 European Champions are 3/1 outsiders to win in ninety minutes, with Germany favourites at 5/4.

Joachim Low’s men never got going in the group stages, but turned it on when beating Slovakia 3-0 in the last-16.

History hands the Italians the advantage in Bordeaux, with the Blues claiming four wins and four draws in eight competitive games against Germany.

However, Daniele de Rossi, who has enjoyed an Indian summer in France, is set to miss the fixture through injury, and his would-be replacement, Thiago Motta, is suspended.

Motta’s would-be stand-in, Antonio Candreva is also injured, so Conte could be forced into a potential fateful tactical reshuffle.

In a game that may well be decided by the finest margins, that could hand Germany the crucial advantage.

If you think it’s going to be too close to call, then a draw is 2/1, while 4/1 says the game is decided on penalties.

Mario Gomez has netted twice this summer, and is favourite at 9/2 to score the opener, with fellow two-goal hero Graziano Pelle rated Italy’s best first-goalscorer hope at 11/2.

But with three of Italy’s goals coming after the 87th minute, it may be worth banking on Pelle at 13/2 or Eder at 9/1 to score last, while Italy to bag the final goal is 6/4.

That would mean Germany conceding for the first time in the tournament however, and you can enjoy 5/4 on Manuel Neuer keeping a clean sheet or 21/10 on a German win to nil.

Some will say this fixture is deserving of more than a quarter-final title, but that’s how the dice have rolled, and it should be a fantastic fixture between two of Europe’s finest footballing nations.

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All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing



Richard Marsh

Richard loves his sport, especially if it involves the sound of tyres screaming around a race track. He's not fussy though and his '90s Premier League nostalgia and knowledge of team nicknames is tough to match.