Sprint Cup King of Stats: Mid-market value identified at Haydock
You couldn’t ask for a much better betting heat than a late-season Group 1 dash, with the 49th running of the 6f Sprint Cup the pick of the weekend action from Haydock.
We’ve put the 17-horse field through the King of Stats ringer in search of a regal punt. Read on for the reveal…
9 of the past 10 Sprint Cup winners were five-years-old or younger
This doesn’t pare down the field much, with only two entrants over the half decade in age at Haydock this time, but does knock out 2013 winner Gordon Lord Byron, who finished Sprint Cup runner up in the years before and after his victory, but could only managed 10th 12 months ago.
Eight years old now, Tom Hogan’s gelding makes way at the first hurdle alongside Edward Lynam’s likely non-runner Sole Power, who’s nine.
9 of the past 10 winners were officially rated at 117 or less going into the race
Only Dream Ahead for David Simcock in 2011, when 4/1 favourite, has taken this with a 120+ official rating over this timeframe, while eight Sprint Cup victors were rated no higher than 114.
Knocking out every runner above the latter, lower figure sees Quiet Reflection, Twilight Son, Limato, and Suedois leave the stage.
8 of the past 10 winners went into the race off the back of a loss
Twilight Son made it five victories on the spin here 12 months ago at a remarkable price of 10/1, but Henry Candy’s four-year-old is one of just two in-form exceptions to rule this race since 2006.
Winning form isn’t generally a good Sprint Cup look, so The Tin Man, Mehronissa and Dancing Star fall by the wayside at this juncture having scored last time out.
6 of the past 10 winners carried 9-3 to victory
That’s the top weight in this Group 1, with four remaining fillies further down the card hard to fancy as just one of the fairer sex has taken it over the past decade, and that was well-fancied 2007 favourite African Rose at 7/2.
We’re left with just three runners that fit all four trends – Kevin Ryan’s Goken, Robert Cowell’s Strath Burn and Charles Hills’ Magical Memory.
Five of the past seven Sprint Cup winners have returned an SP between 10/1 and 14/1, so with Cowell’s colt looking the likeliest to attract such a quote, he gets the nod.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.