How the Swing States shape up ahead of the US Presidential Election
Hillary Clinton may be at her shortest odds ever to win this year’s US Presidential Election, but both the Democratic nominee and opponent Donald Trump will be hoping to claim a number of swing states when the polls open on November 8.
Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Ohio are among those which nobody can quite yet call.
The bookies’ odds also suggest Iowa, Georgia and Arizona are far from certain either.
So, let’s run the rule through the States which could make or break Clinton or Trump’s campaigns…
The ultimate swing state. Florida is arguably a microcosm of the United States as a whole and has been the scene of some monumentally close elections in the past, voting Democrat and Republican three times in each in the last six elections.
The Sunshine State was the only place in 2012 to be decided by less than one per cent – in Obama’s favour – and nobody will forget the 2000 recount episode.
George Bush edged Al Gore by a miniscule 537 votes – or 0.09 per cent if you prefer.
Trump held the polls here in late July and mid-September, but the latest stats show a lead of around three points for Clinton as she dominates among minorities, youth voters, and women.
Earlier in the year it was believed that Pennsylvania may be about to vote Republican for the first time since 1988.
Having voted an average of 0.4 per cent more Republican with every election in the last 24 years, this could have been a major win for Trump. It may still fall that way.
But recent polls are extending Clinton’s advantage in the Keystone State and the bookies’ latest odds reflect that.
To lose the Old North State would be quite a blow for Trump, and the odds suggest North Carolina is on course to vote Democrat for just the second time in 36 years.
Only Barack Obama’s win in 2008 broke the monopoly, and his margin over John McCain that year was a minute 14,000 out of over 4.2m votes – 0.32 per cent.
Obama and North Carolina are back in the news this week too, with the President speaking at a rally campaign for Clinton, tearing into Trump in the process.
Nevada are on a hot streak, having voted correctly voted the last nine Presidents.
Formerly something of a Republican stronghold, a population influx means this has been a swing state since 1992. Voted Democrat 52-46 four years ago.
Plenty of eyes will be on the Silver State next week, when the final Presidential debate is held in Las Vegas on October 19.
A big one for both Clinton and Trump. Dishing out 18 Electoral votes, only six States offer a larger return.
The Rust Belt state has chosen every winner in US Presidential Elections since 1964, but Trump’s is up against it with a severe lack of support from Ohio Governor John Kasich. Historically an indecisive State, each of the last four elections have been won by a 0-5 per cent margin.
Having voted Democrat in six of the last seven elections, Iowa looks set to switch this year, with Trump ahead in the polls by around 3 points.
Clinton had lead the way throughout the summer however, so a late swing can’t be ruled out in the Hawkeye State.
Largely Republican since 1960, only Jimmy Carter (from Georgia) and Bill Clinton (Arkansas) have broken the Peach State’s red run in 56 years.
This would be another blow to Trump should Georgia make a first return to Democrat since 1962.
With a rapidly expanding population, Georgia is unlikely to see a return to the days when George Bush swept John Kerry aside by 17 per cent in 2004. A sizeable coup potentially awaits Clinton.
The top fact about Arizona is that Bill Clinton is the only Democrat to win it since 1952, doing so in 1996.
Republicans have continued to win the Grand Canyon State comfortably in the 21st century, but the latest realclearpolitics.com averages hand Trump a mere one-point lead.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing