Who conforms to our trend guide for the 2018 Cheltenham Gold Cup?
The Gold Cup is the blue riband race at the Cheltenham Festival.
In its history, the renewal has been won by greats including Denman, Kauto Star, Best Mate and Desert Orchid. Last year’s event was won by Sizing John under the guidance of Robbie Power for Jessica Harrington at odds of 7/1.
The last 15 winners of the Gold Cup return an average winning price of 5/1, with only one victory since 1999 returning a price greater than 10/1.
We’ve crunched all of the vital numbers and come up with a handy form guide to help you narrow down your options for this year’s showpiece.
Eight of the last 10 winners have been aged eight or nine
The right level of experience is vital in this race. There has only been one six-year-old winner since 1963, while no ten-year-old has prevailed since 1998. Seven-year-olds fare slightly better, but only one has won since 2008 – Sizing John last year.
From this year’s shortlist, that would rule out Outlander, Mala Beach, Bachasson and many peoples’ outside punt, Road to Respect.
Eight-year-olds and nine-year-olds have four wins apiece in the Cheltenham showpiece over the last decade.
Seven of the last 10 winners have been British-trained
Irish-trained horses don’t have a great success rate in the Gold Cup.
Only three have taken the showpiece in the last 10 years. That extends to just five in 20 when you take into account the last 20 years.
On that basis, lines can be put through Jessica Harrington’s charge Our Duke and Willie Mullins’ main fancy, Killultagh Vic.
Similarly, Irish Gold Cup winner Edwulf can also be discounted for Joseph O’Brien.
However, it should be noted that the last two winners, Sizing John and Don Cossack, were both trained in the Emerald Isle.
Seven of the last 10 winners have carried a Racing Post Rating above 175
Winners of the Gold Cup tend to come from a particularly high rating. Seven of the last 10 have been rated 175 or above.
In this year’s contest, only three horses conform to that trend – Definitly Red (176), Native River (177) and Might Bite (177).
Although two of those three have raced in the Gold Cup before, it’s DEFINITLY RED who gets the nod from us.
Brian Ellison’s charge ran to perfection in the Trial Cotswold Chase in January and as a mudlark will relish the expected heavy conditions.
Find out all the latest Cheltenham Gold Cup odds at Ladbrokes!
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.