Pitchside with Ferris: Champions Cup preview including Leinster v Northampton Saints

Harlequins v Ulster (19:45, Fri) 

Result last week:  25– 24 Ulster 

Harlequins have selected a weaker side for this coming game,whereas Ulster are going full bore. Ulster will not be happy with theirperformance last week in Belfast, having to rely on John Cooney to knock over a79th minute penalty to win thematch.  

In my opinion I thought they were second best in this game, butmaybe that is a sign of a good team being able to get the job done when theyare not playing to their full potential. However, Ulster will take a lot ofconfidence into this game having won last week and knowing if they get anotherwin, they are within touching distance of a European Cup Quarter finalplace. 

I find in these back-to-back games if you get the upper hand inthe first game it can spur you on to get another result the following week, orin this case… six days later! 

I would be going for an Ulster win with a much more improved levelof performance compared to last week. McFarland and the rest of the coachingstaff will be wanting to knock up the intensity a couple ofnotches!  

Prediction: I fancy Ulster to win and just about beat the handicap at –4. 

Racing 92 v Osprey (19:45, Fri) 

Result last week: 19-40 Racing 

The handicap for this game is a lot (29)! With Alun Wyn Jones still out for the Ospreys as he is up for the BBC Sports Personality of the Year and Allen Clarke stepping aside a few weeks back, Ospreys could find themselves in some difficulty.

Racing 92 are sitting pretty in this group. If they can get afive-point win at home, it will set them up nicely for a shootoutbetween the other two big hitters in this group, Munster andSaracens.  

This game being in an indoor stadium, the ball and surface will beslick with no bad weather to talk about. A –29-point handicap for Racing 92 isa lot of points, but with the hole the Ospreys currently find themselves in, Ithink it would be silly to bet against Racing 92 in this game. The team arebuilding nicely with guys like Zebo and Finn Russell pulling thestrings. I reckon they have got it in their locker to score 40-50 points inthis game. I can see the Ospreys getting over the white wash once or twice, butit certainly won’t be enough to trouble Racing 92.

Prediction: My prediction would be Racing 92 –29, this may sound crazy but as I said, with the hole Ospreys have found themselves in I can only see a resounding Racing 92 win here. 

Connacht v Gloucester (12:45, Sat)

Result last week: 26– 17 Gloucester 

Last week Connacht were very much in the game for the large parts.I don’t see them being happy with their defence, as there were 15 line breaksfrom Gloucester during the match.  

I am sure it will be bitterly cold and windy at the Sportsgroundin Galway, the Connacht lads will be rubbing their hands at the prospect ofGloucester coming to try and spoil the party on the West Coast. What a hardplace to go and get a win. 

David Humphreys, the director of Rugby for Gloucester, has played for Ulster at the Sportsground many times over the years, so he will be telling the guys what they are walking into. They may listen to him because it is going to be a tough ask for them to get a result.  

If the weather is poor, it will make the game a lot tighter. Looking at Saracens v Munster last week this game was only 10-3, and I think if the weather conditions had of been better, Munster would have won this by a lot more. Will this be as tight as the bookies suggest?

Prediction: I am going to go with Connacht beating the –2 Handicap. I just can’t see Gloucester getting a win out of this game. Team selection has a huge part to play. But Connacht at the Sportsground, it doesn’t matter who’s travelling there, it will be a tough game!

Montpellier v Toulouse (15:00, Sat)

Result last week: 23– 9 Toulouse 

These teams know each other so well and play each other so often in the Top 14. I had said in my last blog, Toulouse knew what they are facing when Montpellier come to town and I think it’s the same again this week.

This is going to be a tight game. Montpellier at home generally are a very proud French team. There has been a lot of money spent in their club over the last few years. However, they haven’t reached the heights we thought they would when you look at the money spent.

This Toulouse team look like a team who are finally starting toget it back together again. For me, Toulouse are slight favourites heading intothis even though they are away from home. In saying that, the Frenchmentality in going away from home is to get something out of the game even ifthat means picking up a losing bonus point.  

Prediction: I am going to stick to my guns and say Toulouse are going to take the win in this game and beat the -1 Handicap. Montpellier, realistically after being beaten in the first round by Connacht and again being beaten last weekend, it is going to be a tough ask for them to qualify. 

Saracens v Munster (15:00, Sat)

Result last week: 10– 3 Munster 

Last weekend’s game was high attrition and trench warfare attimes due to the conditions. I very much fancy Saracens heading into this game.I think they are going to put out a significantly stronger team. We are goingto see a lot more of those internationals that were away at the Rugby World Cuprepresenting England back in there. 

Munster, for me have been slightly underwhelming so far thisseason. With high coaching pedigree added to their staff in Stephen Larkin andGraham Rowntree I was expecting Munster to be one of the dark horses for thiscompetition. But maybe this is a transitional period for the men in Red. If itis, like a lot of people are saying, then it’s going to take time to get thingsright. 

Prediction: I see Saracens beating the –12 Handicap all day long. (If they pick their best team) This could be my pick of the week in terms of a best value bet!  

Leinster v Northampton Saints (17:15, Sat)

Result last week: 16– 43 Leinster 

Not having Johnny Sexton is a huge loss for Leinster. RossByrne must step up to the plate and show what he is made of oncemore.

All season he has been showing that he can fill Johnny Sexton’sboots with no issues, and I think generally the whole way through the Leinstersquad, it doesn’t matter who takes the pitch. Ronan Kelleher is now out with abroken hand and will be missing for a few weeks.

This leaves the door slightly ajar for James Tracy and Sean Croninwho is back for training this week. Leo Cullen has the benefit of his teambeing versatile. Sometimes when a player gets injured, itmight disrupt the team, but not Leinster.  

They are unbeaten in all competitions this season, so I would notbe betting against them. The –19 Handicap for Leinster is a lot, but I thinkNorthampton will be looking for a reaction from last week as it did getembarrassing for them as the game went on.

There wasn’t a huge crowd watching the Saints at home and anytravelling support will be looking to go home with more of a smile on theirface this week. Not sure this will be the case though… 

Prediction: For me, Leinster are huge favourites and rightly so. Northampton have the ability to score a couple of tries, but Leinster have the ability to score 40 points.

Clermont v Bath (15:15, Sun)

Result last week: 17– 34 Clermont 

I can’t see Bath making a comeback, never mind making one in thisgame – I think they are goosed for the tournament! 

In this game I fancy Clermont to score four tries at least and geta 5-point win.

With the type of players, they have I can see them doing a bignumber on Bath. I can see Bath making a lot of changes to give some guys anopportunity of exposure and experience in the European Heineken Cup. 

Looking ahead to this game the –22 Handicap for Clermont looksOK. Depending on the weather, if it is lashing down with rain it could bea very tough contest with a lot of stoppages in play. 

Prediction: If it is a half decent dry ball, I fancy this Clermont team to run riot and score more than 21 points to beat the HC.

Top try scorer’s over the weekend

Virimi Vakatawa – Racing 92
Alivereit Raka – Clermont
James Lowe – Leinster

Five-Fold ACCA

Clermont v Bath: Clermont win 
Racing 92 v Ospreys: Racing 92 win 
Leinster v Northampton Saints: Leinster win 
Saracens v Munster: Saracens win 
Glasgow v La Rochelle: Glasgow win 

Stephen