Cheltenham Festival 2023: All the key statistics
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Cheltenham statistics to help pick out some Festival winners
The Cheltenham Festival is the jewel in horse racing’s crown and the showpiece meeting of the National Hunt season. Thousands upon thousands of racing fans descend upon jump racing HQ to marvel at the equine talent that is on show.
The big meeting starts on Tuesday as PA Media’s Adam Morgan looks at some of the key stats that will help when searching through the Cheltenham betting and attempting to pick out some winners.
Russell’s last dance
Many thought Davy Russell would never be seen at Prestbury Park (in a riding capacity) again following his sudden retirement midway through the current campaign.
But injury to Gordon Elliott’s number one rider saw the SOS sent the 22-time winning Festival jockey’s way and he is back in the saddle for one last hurrah.
Back out of retirement, he can resume the mantle of the most winning active rider at the Cheltenham Festival and will have one final chance to add to his 22 times victories at the Festival.
Between 2006 and 2018 he never drove out of the gates of the Gloucestershire track without a Festival winner to his name, but winners have been sparce since with Russell drawing a blank in the past two seasons.
It pays to side with those with big-race experience and there is nobody more knowledgeable than the Irish veteran, who is rarely in the wrong place at the wrong time in the high-pressure situations.
Elliott will hope he has made the right decision to recall the legendary Irish rider when he partners a plethora of the Cullentra House string, with Turners Novices’ Chase favourite Mighty Potter and Gold Cup hope Conflated amongst Russell’s book of rides.
Mullins the main man
Not only is Willie Mullins the most successful trainer at the Cheltenham Festival but he has proved to be punters most reliable ally over the last decade.
The master of Closutton has made Prestbury Park his own, amassing 88 winners and has no fewer than 12 favourites or joint favourites over the course of the four-day meeting.
He is the heavy 1/6 favourite in the top trainer market and although ‘Willie Wednesday’ does have a fine ring to it, Tuesday is the time to follow the Irishman into battle when he has leading claims throughout the card.
Will Irish eyes smile again?
Having won just five races at the 2021 Festival, Great Britian made a blistering start 12 months ago by winning four of the first five on the opening day and leading the Prestbury Cup at the close of play.
However, the usual order was gradually restored as the week progressed and a clean sweep on the final day of the Festival ensured Ireland took home the trophy for the seventh time in eight years.
Ireland are heavy favourites for the Prestbury Cup once again and we’ve looked at the Cheltenham Britain v Ireland battle in depth as the Brits attempt to stop the rot.
140 the golden number
When it comes to the fiercely competitive handicaps, the number you are looking for alongside your desired horse is a rating of 140.
Of the nine handicaps at the meeting, six last year were won by horses rated from 136 to 143. When you take that back to the past five years, almost half of the winners in those races have been in that range, with Corach Rambler hitting the target in the Ultima off that magic number of 140.
Here you can read who we think will go close in the handicaps with our tips for every single handicap race at the Cheltenham Festival.
Does the favourite always win?
Seventeen of the 28 winners last year came from the first three in the betting, with 12 of those winning favourites – three of which scored at odds-on.
That is just under half of the 28 races going to the market leader and the statistics suggest that you have a great chance of finding a winner by sticking with the favourite in the Arkle and Champion Hurdle.
Eight favourites have won the Arkle in the last 10 years, while for the day-one feature Honeysuckle made it seven out of 10 when defending her crown in 2021.
When to look for an outsider
It is not all about the favourites, though, as stacked fields and in-running chaos mean there is plenty of value to be found.
Commander of Fleet wins a tight Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle
They were only separated by the bob of a head!#Cheltenham2022 | #ITVRacing pic.twitter.com/TmvV9Tjxt1
— ITV Racing (@itvracing) March 16, 2022
The Coral Cup provided the longest-priced winner 12 months ago when 50-1 shot Commander Of Fleet proved his class in the Wednesday gloom, while the Boodles Fred Winter, Grand Annual, Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle and Martin Pipe continued their trend of providing big price winners with all of the victors obliging at double-figure odds.
Respect the going
Good ground featured in the opening day’s going description nearly every year from 2012-17, but since then global warming has caused problems for Clerk of the Course Jon Pullen in a tricky first season in charge of the Prestbury Park hosepipe.
Records were smashed on day one of last year’s Festival when a run of four years with soft or heavy going came to an end, but the course was left resembling a mud bath by the end of the second day when the heavens opened and continued to pour throughout Wednesday.
This season, things have been unseasonably dry, but the latest cold snap, and the snow and rain which has accompanied it, has given hope that Pullen can let nature take its course and provide a safe racing surface without using the irrigation systems.
One thing for certain however is that a horse’s preferred going should definitely be considered before striking any bets over the four days.
Usual service resumed in County Hurdle
Willie Mullins and Dan Skelton have shared seven of the last 10 runnings of the two-mile handicap and look to have a strong hand once again in 2023.
Closutton’s State Man romped to victory off a mark of 141 a year ago in a triumph that would bring about a change in the qualification rules for the major handicap hurdles staged this season.
8 days until Cheltenham! 🏇@Ladbrokes ambassadors @DSkeltonRacing and @Townend_P sat down to discuss their Cheltenham Festival expectations.
How many winners do you think Dan and Paul will bag at #CheltenhamFestival? 🥇 pic.twitter.com/l7GVouaXkK
— Ladbrokes (@Ladbrokes) March 6, 2023
Now novices need to run at least four times before appearing in a Class One handicap, limiting the opportunities for lightly raced precocious youngsters to sneak under the radar.
However, both Mullins and Skelton have clearly read the rule book and have ensured both Hunters Yarn and Pembroke have run enough times over obstacles to secure a place in the line-up.
Mullins could also call on his two time Champion Hurdle runner-up Sharjah if his young gun fails to fire.
