Fury v Usyk: The numbers behind a potential heavyweight unification bout

Fury v Usyk betting: Who will become undisputed champion?

Tyson Fury and Oleksandr Usyk both successfully retained their heavyweight belts in 2022 and look set to contest an historic unification bout in March.

The winner would become the first undisputed world champion in the division since Lennox Lewis over 20 years ago and cement their reputation as a boxing legend.

Here we analyse the recent exploits of both fighters to predict how the fight could unfold.

Tale of the tape

As with most of his opponents, Fury’s enormous frame gives him a significant height and reach advantage over Usyk. The Gypsy King is also the younger of the two by just over a year and a half.

While the Ukrainian was not intimidated by the six foot six frame of Anthony Joshua in his two recent victories, Fury’s size advantage is twice that of his fellow Brit and will surely require Usyk to adapt his approach.

Will Fury struggle against a southpaw?

While Usyk is a more conventionally-sized heavyweight, one unusual aspect that Fury will have to deal with is his left-handedness. He will be only the third exclusively southpaw fighter that Fury has encountered since his first comeback in 2018 and the previous two gave him more trouble than their orthodox counterparts.

The 127 punches landed on Fury by the left-handed Otto Wallin was the most that anyone has managed in a 12-round fight. Furthermore the combined punching statistics from the Gypsy King’s fights against Wallin and fellow southpaw Francesco Pianeta are noticeably worse than against right-handed boxers over this period.

This is true for both punches thrown by Fury – with his jab suffering the most – and those aimed at him. Wallin and Pianeta landed over a third of their power punches while their orthodox rivals connected with around a quarter of theirs.

How long could the fight last?

Since he defeated Usyk’s fellow countryman Wladimir Klitschko, only three of Fury’s nine fights have lasted the full distance but two of these were against the aforementioned left-handed opponents.

This suggests that the fight will last longer if the Ukrainian boxer can influence proceedings, which is backed up by the respective timing of their knockouts. Usyk’s stoppages have tended to come later – between the seventh and tenth rounds – with the seventh the only round in which both fighters have seen a contest ended early.

Usyk being in control would mean that the crowd are more likely to get value for money, as over half of his 12-round fights to date have been settled by the judges, including all of his last three.

However if it is Fury who is able to dictate the rhythm of the fight then we could see an early end to proceedings, as six of his full-length bouts to date have been completed by the sixth round compared to just one of Usyk’s. Furthermore, five of the British fighter’s last six outings have ended in a knockout, with the exception being the aforementioned encounter with Wallin.

What happened when they met Derek Chisora?

While these two have never met in the ring before, they have both fought the same man recently. Fury’s most recent bout was against fellow Brit Derek Chisora, whom Uysk defeated three fights ago in 2020.

True to form, the Gypsy King secured a tenth-round knockout while Usyk’s victory was awarded by the judges. Their performances in the ring also differed, with the Ukrainian landing more jabs and Fury more power punches.

Concerningly for Usyk, he had to soak up a lot more punishment from Chisora, who landed an average of 11 power punches per round against him; almost twice what Fury permitted. With his rival a notorious heavy hitter, ‘The Cat’ will have to present a more agile and elusive target if he is to remain on his feet here.

Which rounds could be the most explosive?

We have also looked back at the punching statistics for their last six fights to see how their energy levels compare. While Usyk has ramped up gradually, with each of the first seven rounds seeing him land progressively more strikes, Fury’s attacks tend to build in waves.

The first nine rounds of recent fights involving the Gypsy King can be broken into three groups of three that build in intensity before he drops off and a new wave begins.

The seventh round crops up again as an interesting one here: along with the fourth it stands out as one in which Fury has tended to land blows less frequently than his rival.

In the final stages a starker pattern emerges, with Fury landing progressively fewer punches from the tenth round onwards while Usyk unleashes a late surge of energy.

Four of the last six rounds have seen Usyk land over 20 punches on average: a rate that Fury hasn’t been able to reach in any round. Dragging this contest out could therefore suit the Ukrainian, assuming that he retains the stamina necessary to tire out Fury.