Rishi Sunak, Next Prime Minister odds
Home  »    »    »   Next Tory party leader odds: Sunak back in front after second live debate

Next Tory party leader odds: Sunak back in front after second live debate

| 10.07.2022

Sunak back in front in next Tory party leader odds

Rishi Sunak leads the race once again to replace Boris Johnson as leader of the Conservative Party after a furious set of exchanges with rivals Liz Truss and Penny Mordaunt on live television.

Sunak and Mordaunt were almost neck and neck at 11/8 and 6/4 before Sunday’s debate on ITV, but the former Chancellor is now 5/4 in the next Tory Party leader odds.

Mordaunt has drifted to 2/1, but Truss’ combative performance means the Foreign Secretary has been cut from 5/1 to 10/3.

Kemi Badenoch is getting closer to the main three all the time and now stands at 10/1, but Tom Tugendhat is out to 80/1 from 50/1.

Alex Apati of Ladbrokes said: “Things couldn’t have gone much worse for Penny Mordaunt on Sunday night; Rishi Sunak has leapfrogged her into top spot in the betting while Liz Truss has closed the gap, and we’re now strapping in for one of the closest leadership races we’ve ever seen.”

In Sunday’s debate, Sunak engaged in more furious exchanges with Tory leadership rivals Truss and Mordaunt.

Sunak accused Truss of peddling “something-for-nothing” economics after she said he was choking off growth by raising taxes to their highest level in 70 years.

And after Mordaunt said she would not keep to his rule of only borrowing to invest, he said even former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn did not advocate such a fiscal loosening.

Sunak topped the voting in the first two ballots of Tory MPs but polling has suggested he would struggle against either of his main rivals in a final run-off vote of the entire party membership.

The field is expected to be narrowed to two by the end of this week at which point it will be up to Tory members to decide who they want to be the next leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister, with the result to be announced on September 5.

Here are the candidates left in the leaderships race and their next Tory Party leader odds.

Rishi Sunak

Age: 42

Bio: Born in Southampton in 1980, his father was a GP and his mother ran her own pharmacy. He attended one of the top private schools in the country, Winchester College, before studying PPE at Oxford. In parliament since 2015, he is thought to be among one of the richest MPs in the Commons, he has had a rapid rise to the upper tier of British politics – gaining nationwide recognition after being appointed Chancellor in February 2020, weeks before the Covid-19 pandemic hit.

Ministerial experience: Chancellor of the Exchequer until July 5 when he quit in protest at the Prime Minister’s leadership.

What did he do before politics? Hedge fund manager.

What does he say on tax? He has promised to get the tax burden down once inflation is under control saying “it is a question of when, not if”, but warned rivals “it is not credible to promise lots more spending and lower taxes”.

What does he say on defence spending? He views the Nato target of 2% of GDP as a “floor and not a ceiling” and notes it is set to rise to 2.5% “over time” but refuses to set “arbitrary targets”.

What is his position on identity politics? He has criticised “trends to erase women via the use of clumsy, gender neutral language”.

How did he vote in the 2016 Brexit referendum? Leave

Constituency: Richmond (Yorks)

Votes in the second round of the leadership contest: 101

Next Tory Party leader odds: 5/4

Penny Mordaunt

Bio: A colourful MP for Portsmouth North, Ms Mordaunt has represented the constituency since 2010. Born in Torquay, her mother died of breast cancer when she was 15. After college, she did stints working on George W Bush’s presidential campaigns. She also appeared on reality TV diving show Splash in 2014.

Age: 49

Ministerial experience: Currently Trade Minister, has had Cabinet jobs in the defence and international development briefs.

What did she do before politics? She was a magician’s assistant while in college before a career in public relations.

What does she say about tax? She has pledged a 50% cut in VAT on fuel. But she insists she will maintain control of the public finances.

What does she say on defence spending? She stands by the manifesto commitment to the Nato target but would also create a civil defence force to supplement the military.

Where does she stand on identity politics? She said: “It was Margaret Thatcher who said ‘Every prime minister needs a Willie’. A woman like me doesn’t have one.”

How did she vote in the 2016 Brexit referendum? Leave

Constituency: Portsmouth North

Votes in the second round of the leadership contest: 83

Next Tory Party leader odds: 2/1

Liz Truss

Bio: Born in Oxford, her father was a maths professor and her mother was a nurse. Both left-wing voters, they and her family moved to Paisley, near Glasgow, when Truss was four. As a child she was brought up on anti-Thatcher demonstrations, while she was also a Liberal Democrat for a brief period in her youth. It was only later that she became interested in right-wing politics and the Conservative Party. She is married to husband Hugh, who she met at the 1997 Conservative Party conference and has two teenage daughters.

Age: 46

Ministerial experience: Current Foreign Secretary.

What did she do before politics? Worked as an economist for Shell and Cable and Wireless and was then a deputy director for right-of-centre think tank Reform.

What does she say on tax? She has pledged to “start cutting taxes from day one”, reversing April’s rise in National Insurance and promising to keep “corporation tax competitive”.

How did she vote in the 2016 Brexit referendum? Remain

Constituency: South West Norfolk

Votes in the second round of the leadership contest: 64

Next Tory Party leader odds: 5/1

Kemi Badenoch

Bio: Born in Wimbledon to two doctors, she lived in the US and Nigeria before returning to the UK at the age of 16. She worked in McDonalds to put herself through two degrees, one in engineering and another in law. A former vice-chair of the Conservative Party, she was elected to parliament in 2017 – rising through the ministerial ranks rapidly over the last few years.

Age: 42

Ministerial experience: Resigned as equalities minister and a minister in the Levelling Up department on July 6.

What did she do before politics? Worked in McDonald’s while at college, trained as an engineer, became an associate director at private bank Coutts and held a senior role with the Spectator magazine.

What does she say on tax? She is committed to reducing corporate and personal taxes but told rivals “I will not enter into a tax bidding war over, ‘my tax cuts are bigger than yours’.”

What does she say about the net zero target? Has described the current policy as “unilateral economic disarmament” that is being pursued “without thought” for industries in the poorer parts of the UK.

What’s her position on identity politics? A possible indication – the general neutral toilets at the venue for her campaign launch had paper “men” or “ladies” signs taped to the doors.

How did she vote in the 2016 Brexit referendum? Leave

Constituency: Saffron Walden

Votes in the second round of the leadership contest: 49

Next Tory Party leader odds: 10/1

Tom Tugendhat

Bio: He grew up in London and Sellindge, near Ashford, before studying Theology at Bristol University. He studied for a master’s degree in Islamics at Cambridge University, before joining the army. An MP since 2015 for Tonbridge, Edenbridge and Malling, he lives with his wife, Anissia, and two children in the constituency.

Age: 49

Ministerial experience: Never held ministerial office but chairs the Commons Foreign Affairs Committee.

What did he do before politics? Served in the Army Intelligence Corps in Iraq and Afghanistan and as an adviser to the Chief of Defence Staff.

What does he say about tax? He would cut 10p a litre off fuel duty and change tax incentives to encourage business investment.

What is his position on defence spending? He would increase it to 3% of GDP saying national security must come before “bean counters and spreadsheets”.

How did he vote in the 2016 Brexit referendum? Remain

Constituency: Tonbridge and Malling

Votes in the second round of the leadership contest: 32

Next Tory Party leader odds: 50/1

View the latest politics odds

All odds and markets correct as of date of publication

«
»

Author

Warren Barner