Premier League run-in: How the title, top four and relegation issues could look
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Analysing the Premier League run-in for the 2022-23 season
The Premier League season is nearing its climax, with plenty still to play for.
The title race between Arsenal and Manchester City remains wide open, while third and fourth spot are far from decided with Manchester United still in multiple competitions and Tottenham on the brink of sacking manager Antonio Conte.
At the other end of the table, there are four points separating the bottom nine teams in what promises to be the most thrilling relegation battle in recent memory.
As the campaign pauses for its final international break, we have analysed the remaining fixtures, checked on possible player fatigue and looked back at how teams have finished over the past 10 seasons.
Who could finish the season strongly?
With just 10 or 11 games left for most teams, fixture difficulty is likely to have a significant impact on how the table looks at the end of May.
Crystal Palace have the kindest schedule, with eight of their remaining 10 games scheduled against teams in the bottom half of the table.
Former Eagles manager Patrick Vieira can consider himself hard done by, following his sacking earlier this month. As well as missing out on their upcoming run, Vieira had to face teams in the top half of the table in 10 of their 11 matches in 2023 up until his dismissal.
The returning Roy Hodgson is the beneficiary and will hope to lead Palace away from danger. Fellow relegation candidates Bournemouth and Leicester also face bottom-half opposition in the majority of their remaining matches.
On paper, Everton and Southampton have the toughest fixtures of the teams fighting to avoid the drop, with six of their final 10 games against teams currently ranked between 1st and 10th.
Meanwhile, Chelsea’s disappointing season could yet take a turn for the worse, with the Blues’ remaining fixtures comprising games against seven of the current top eight – including trips to title-chasing Arsenal and Manchester City.
The race between Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal and Pep Guardiola’s City is likely to go to the wire, particularly if City can complete the double over the Gunners when they visit the Etihad Stadium on April 26.
Victory in that game may not be enough, however, given Arsenal’s record against their other nine remaining opponents. Arteta’s side won seven and drew two of the corresponding reverse fixtures – a set of results that would leave City needing a minimum of 31 points from their final 11 games to take the title.
It is time to dispel the long-held notion that a tally of 38 points is required to ensure Premier League survival. The all-important mark is likely to be much lower this season, with five of the bottom six having managed fewer than a point per game in previous meetings with their remaining opponents.
Bottom club Southampton appear to be in the greatest peril unless they can improve on a record of one win, two draws and seven defeats from earlier in the season.
Which squads could be tired?
Looking at potential player fatigue, Arsenal’s Europa League exit against Sporting Lisbon could prove to be a blessing in disguise, with Arteta having entrusted his first choice XI with more Premier League minutes than any other manager.
His template team of Aaron Ramsdale in goal, Ben White, Gabriel, William Saliba and Oleksandr Zinchenko at the back, Thomas Partey, Granit Xhaka and Martin Odegaard in midfield, and Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli and Gabriel Jesus up front have collectively accounted for 84 per cent of playing time in 2022-23 – more than any other club.
Despite using only 22 players in total – the fewest of any team – City should be fresher for the run-in than Arsenal, with their main men having played nearly 400 fewer minutes apiece in the Premier League.
Chelsea’s players will arguably be the freshest of all. The Blues’ January spending spree means that their most used XI has barely cracked 60 per cent of total minutes in the top flight.
Who has the best end-of-season record?
In another positive sign for Palace fans, the Eagles have averaged a healthy 14 points in the final 10 games of Premier League seasons over the past decade, compared with 11 in a typical 10-game spell between matchweeks 1 and 28.
Leicester and Everton have traditionally seen a similar uplift, while Arsenal’s late-season form reinforces the perception that they are unlikely to fold in the face of City’s pursuit.
Manchester United have generally fallen away towards the end of the season in the 10 years since Sir Alex Ferguson’s retirement.
The Red Devils performed poorly in taking 11 points from their final 10 games under caretaker manager Ralf Rangnick. However, they have since bounced back under Erik ten Hag and the Dutchman will be keen to avoid any drop-off this time round as he looks to cap a successful first year in charge.
How much does the table change?
Results from the past decade suggest that teams rarely undo their good work by throwing away the title or a top-four place in the last 10 games, or indeed salvage their season by escaping relegation trouble.
Of teams who were top of the table with 10 games to go since 2012-13, only Liverpool failed to lift the trophy when they were pipped by Manchester City in 2018-19. Jurgen Klopp’s side hardly collapsed on that occasion, with their total of 97 points the highest ever managed by the Premier League runners-up.
Similarly, only five of the 40 teams who entered the run-in occupying a Champions League berth finished outside the top four. That said, four of these instances have come in the past five seasons, with Arsenal and Leicester both missing out twice.
Meanwhile, just four of the 30 teams who were in the relegation zone with 10 games left managed to avoid the drop. The most recent of these was Aston Villa in 2019-20 when Watford went down instead, while the most famous was Leicester in 2014-15 when the Foxes won seven of their final 10 games to survive in 14th having been bottom with 10 matches to go. They went on to win the title 12 months later in miraculous circumstances.
