Arsenal or Manchester City? 4 key points in the Premier League title race

The Premier League title race between Arsenal and Manchester City

The Premier League title race looks set to go right to the wire, with Arsenal’s dramatic 2-2 draw at Liverpool on Easter Sunday having opened the door for reigning champions Manchester City.

The Gunners are six points clear of City, but Pep Guardiola’s side can erase that gap by winning their game in hand and beating Mikel Arteta’s men in a potentially decisive game on April 26.

While Arsenal can focus solely on claiming a first league title since 2003-04, City are chasing a possible treble with a Champions League quarter-final against Bayern Munich and an FA Cup semi-final against Sheffield United providing imminent distractions.

We have analysed each side’s remaining fixtures and the state of both squads to see who might hold the upper hand.

Who has the tougher run-in?

Arsenal appear to have the more difficult set of games on paper, with a match against Eddie Howe’s in-form Newcastle looming just 11 days after their all-important trip to the Etihad Stadium.

The Gunners slipped up badly in the same fixture last season when chasing a top-four finish. Needing a win in their penultimate game to stay ahead of Tottenham, Arteta’s team were brushed aside 2-0 by the resurgent Magpies.

Manchester City – on the other hand – bear no such recent scars. City are unbeaten in Premier League matches against Arsenal since December 2015, with Guardiola having tasted victory over his former assistant Arteta in eight of their nine meetings in all competitions.

The defending champions could instead be tested in their remaining away matches against Fulham, Everton, Brentford and Brighton. City dropped points earlier in the season in two of those reverse fixtures – at home to Everton and Brentford.

Who is playing the better football?

Both Arsenal and Manchester City are in a rich vein of form. City’s 3-0 win over Bayern Munich in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final was their ninth in a row in all competitions – their best run of the season.

Meanwhile, the Gunners responded admirably to defeat against Guardiola’s side in mid-February, having won seven and drawn one of their subsequent eight Premier League games.

Looking at the underlying numbers, both teams are streets ahead of the competition, but City have a slight edge in attack and defence.

City are top of the league for goals, shots and touches in the final third, with Arteta’s side in second for all three metrics. Guardiola’s side have a clear advantage over Arsenal when it comes to putting crosses in, while the Gunners are the best in the division at taking players on.

Which squad is the fresher?

Guardiola and Arteta have adopted entirely different approaches to managing their squads this season, with the former often tinkering with his preferred line-up and the latter sticking with a tried and tested XI.

Arsenal have made just 27 changes to their starting team this season, the fewest of any Premier League club and less than half as many as City (68). As a result, the vast majority of the Gunners’ playing time has been shared among a select group of players.

Eight members of Arsenal’s squad have played more than 80 per cent of possible minutes this season, compared with just four of City’s. Aaron Ramsdale, Gabriel, Bukayo Saka and Granit Xhaka have even surpassed the 90 per cent mark for Arteta, while only Ederson and Rodri have done the same for Guardiola.

However, City’s fringe players have provided greater competition for places than their Arsenal counterparts. Fifteen squad members, including Erling Haaland’s able deputy Julian Alvarez, have featured for at least one third of minutes for City, while Eddie Nketiah is the only player outside Arsenal’s first XI to breach the 30 per cent mark.

Guardiola has generally trusted whichever side he has fielded this term, with the City boss having made just 94 substitutions so far (the lowest number in the league). Arsenal, meanwhile, have made 114 in-game changes.

What does history tell us?

Only eight teams in the Premier League era have amassed more than Arsenal’s 73 points after 30 games, and every single one of them went on to win the title. This includes the last Arsenal title-winning side – the ‘Invincibles’ – who had accumulated 74 points at the same stage in 2003-04.

Of the three sides to have matched the Gunners’ tally, however, two failed to lift the trophy. Ominously for Arsenal, it was City who ultimately triumphed on both those occasions, edging Liverpool in 2018-19 thanks to a 14-game winning streak and earning their first title on goal difference at the expense of Manchester United in 2011-12.

With City’s goal difference currently five better than Arsenal’s, their meeting at the Etihad Stadium on April 26 is likely to prove crucial. Both teams have their fate in their own hands. City know that nine wins from nine games from now until the end of the season will all but guarantee them the trophy, while Arsenal need to avoid defeat at the Etihad and win their other fixtures to make certain of the title.

Home advantage could prove pivotal – only one of the last five ‘title deciders’ played in the final two months of the season has seen the away team triumph. That was Carlo Ancelotti’s Chelsea at Manchester United in 2009-10.

In another good sign for Guardiola’s side, three of the five seasons in question saw the trailing team overturn the deficit in the final weeks of the campaign.