Six Nations blog: Stephen Ferris predicts wins for England & Wales
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In his latest Six Nations blog with Ladbrokes, Stephen Ferris previews Italy v Scotland, England v Ireland and Wales v France this weekend.
Stephen Ferris’ Six Nations blog
Five of Italy’s thirteen victories in the Six Nations have come at home against Scotland, making it their most successful fixture. However, Italy haven’t won since 2012 and they will need a monumental performance to break that winless streak.
If Italy can hang in there against Scotland for 60 minutes, then they will give themselves a real chance of victory. Italy have scored 46% of their points in the final 20 minutes of their games in the Six Nations, the highest such rate of any team. Meanwhile, Scotland have conceded 43% of their total points during the final 20 minutes; also the Championships highest rate. It really should be a dramatic last quarter, which I’m sure will have lots of controversial decisions thrown in.
Italy draws confidence from their recent performance against France, where a missed last-minute penalty denied them a historic away win. This resilience could propel them forward in their encounter with Scotland.
On the other side, Scotland enters the match with momentum, coming off a notable victory against England and an outstanding performance by winger Duhan Van Der Merwe who crossed for a hat-trick of tries. Having secured wins in their last eight Six Nations meetings with Italy, Scotland aims to thwart any aspirations of a comfortable home victory and try to silence the passionate Italian supporters.
As the anticipation builds, many neutral fans think Italy might be able to spring an upset, or is it just wanting the underdog to do well, and that Scotland will solidify their dominance once again? The certainty lies in an intense battle on the field, with both sides exhibiting relentless determination until the final whistle.
The prediction is Italy +12 points on the handicap at 10/11.
In a rare twist of expectations, Ireland heads to Twickenham as the unmistakable favourites, leaving many to question the generosity of the 12-point handicap offered to England. The prevailing sentiment points to England’s perceived lack of attacking prowess, raising speculation on whether Steve Borthwick will alter tactics or if fans will endure another lacklustre performance on home turf. With an average ticket costing around £150, spectators eagerly anticipate enhanced value for their investment.
Ireland has dominated against England in the Six Nations, winning 14 out of 24 matches and securing the last three victories by more than 10 points, this just underscores the current state of these rugby powerhouses. Riding an impressive 11-game winning streak in the Six Nations, Ireland has the chance to make history with a victory on Saturday evening.
Concerns over Ireland’s lineout, previously shaky during the World Cup, have been alleviated, boasting an impressive 95% success rate. Meanwhile, England maintains a commendable 92% success rate but struggles to capitalize on the gains. As both teams prioritize a solid set-piece, England may target this aspect to disrupt Ireland’s momentum and upset the odds.
Hugo Keenan’s return at fullback provides a significant boost for Ireland, with his talismanic presence expected to sway the game’s outcome. England welcomes back George Martin for added grunt and power, possibly signalling a strategic shift to a more physical approach, especially with formidable props Marler and Will Stuart ready to be deployed from the bench.
This gargantuan clash sets the stage for a battle between power and intensity against dynamism and skill. As the clock ticks towards 4.45pm on Saturday, the question of which style will prevail hangs in the air.
My prediction is England +12 points on the handicap at 10/11
Wales concludes this year’s Six Nations Championship with a double header at home, kicking off with a clash against France at the Principality Stadium in Cardiff on Sunday afternoon at 3pm. The revered stadium, often hailed as the best in the world for rugby, promises a sold-out spectacle. Known for its unmatched atmosphere, where fans are almost within breathing distance of the action, the Principality Stadium sets the stage for what could be a belter.
In recent years, the pendulum has swung in favour of France, securing victories in the last five encounters, while Wales dominated with seven wins in the previous eight. Facing an inconsistent France, Wales sees a prime opportunity for an upset on their emotionally charged home turf.
The narrative surrounding France is one of contrasts – from the team that won 24 out of 26 matches before a disappointing Rugby World Cup exit, to the recent erratic performances causing concern among French fans. As Wales steadily improves throughout the Championship, they must elevate their game to overcome a wounded French side that narrowly escaped defeat against Italy last weekend.
Wales’ prolific ball-carrying in the Six Nations has yet to translate into sufficient line breaks and tries, a challenge they must address to secure a more favourable winning position. France, with an impressive 90% tackle success rate, poses a formidable defensive challenge, relying on big, dominant collisions to apply pressure.
Despite a feeling of unrest within the French camp, evident in numerous changes to their lineup, the unpredictability of this team remains a constant threat. With pace and athleticism across the pitch, France has the potential to trouble any team in world rugby. The question remains though; which France will turn up?
My prediction is Wales +6 points on the handicap at 10/11
