The Liberal Democrats’ chances seat by seat
Published:
Robert Ford’s excellent look at Lib Dems’ different election battles for The Observer. https://t.co/pZpEwPtcIB
— Toby Helm (@tobyhelm) April 5, 2015
Rob Ford wrote an interesting round up of the Liberal Democrats’ prospects for Sunday’s Observer. I thought I’d compare his summary to the latest odds in each seat.
In the table below, I’ve converted the odds into an implied “win chance” for each of the 57 existing Lib Dem seats. If you check his article out, you’ll see what each of the “Ford Ratings” is about
| Seat | Win Chance | Ford Rating |
| Westmorland and Lonsdale | 86% | SAFE |
| Norfolk North | 80% | SAFE |
| Orkney and Shetland | 80% | SAFE |
| Twickenham | 79% | SAFE |
| Colchester | 76% | SAFE |
| Lewes | 74% | SAFE |
| Bath | 73% | OPEN |
| Thornbury and Yate | 73% | SAFE |
| Carshalton and Wallington | 71% | LOCAL |
| Hazel Grove | 70% | OPEN |
| Yeovil | 69% | SAFE |
| Cambridge | 68% | URBAN |
| Southport | 65% | LOCAL |
| Cheltenham | 63% | LOCAL |
| Kingston and Surbiton | 63% | LOCAL |
| Leeds North West | 62% | URBAN |
| Sutton and Cheam | 62% | LOCAL |
| Bermondsey and Old Southwark | 61% | LOCAL |
| Eastleigh | 61% | SAFE |
| Eastbourne | 58% | LOCAL |
| Brecon and Radnorshire | 58% | HEARTLAND |
| Sheffield Hallam | 56% | URBAN |
| Ceredigion | 56% | HEARTLAND |
| Ross, Skye and Lochaber | 54% | LOCAL |
| Cheadle | 53% | HEARTLAND |
| Birmingham Yardley | 51% | URBAN |
| St Ives | 51% | HEARTLAND |
| Bristol West | 47% | URBAN |
| Cornwall North | 47% | HEARTLAND |
| Torbay | 47% | HEARTLAND |
| Berwick-upon-Tweed | 36% | OPEN |
| Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | 35% | LOST |
| Portsmouth South | 33% | LOST |
| Devon North | 32% | HEARTLAND |
| Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross | 31% | LOST |
| Chippenham | 30% | LOST |
| Hornsey and Wood Green | 30% | URBAN |
| Wells | 28% | LOST |
| Bradford East | 26% | LOST |
| Taunton Deane | 26% | OPEN |
| Fife North East | 25% | LOST |
| Cardiff Central | 24% | URBAN |
| Dorset Mid and Poole North | 23% | OPEN |
| Somerton and Frome | 23% | OPEN |
| Dunbartonshire East | 22% | LOST |
| St Austell and Newquay | 22% | HEARTLAND |
| Solihull | 21% | LOST |
| Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine | 18% | LOST |
| Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey | 16% | LOST |
| Burnley | 16% | LOST |
| Gordon | 16% | OPEN |
| Edinburgh West | 15% | LOST |
| Brent Central | 10% | OPEN |
| Manchester Withington | 10% | LOST |
| Redcar | 10% | OPEN |
| Argyll and Bute | 8% | LOST |
| Norwich South | 7% | LOST |
So, we mostly agree with Rob about where the safest and most vulnerable seats are. The betting says that Eastleigh is the most precarious of Rob’s “safe” category, with a 39% chance that the Lib Dems will lose it. On the flip side, the odds say that Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk might not be the lost cause that Rob suggests – we give them a 35% chance of holding on there.
Looking at his list of possible surprise Liberal Democrat gains, we agree on Montgomeryshire and Watford as being the top two prospects, but the betting has a few above his third choice of St Albans:
| Seat | Gain Chance |
| Watford | 34% |
| Montgomeryshire | 28% |
| Maidstone and The Weald | 20% |
| Truro and Falmouth | 16% |
| Winchester | 15% |
| Oxford West and Abingdon | 15% |
| Cornwall South East | 14% |
| St Albans | 11% |
