FA Cup final: Will City or United lift the trophy in historic derby date at Wembley?

Who will win the Manchester derby FA Cup final?

There will be a Manchester derby FA Cup final for the first time in the competition’s 152-year history after City and United won their semi-finals at the weekend.

Riyad Mahrez scored a hat-trick for Pep Guardiola’s side in a comfortable win over Championship promotion-chasers Sheffield United, while United needed a penalty shoot-out to overcome Brighton in a hard-fought tie.

The final is likely to take on added significance for both teams if City can overhaul Arsenal in the Premier League and defeat Real Madrid in the Champions League. This would put Guardiola’s men on course to match United’s 1998-99 treble-winning team come the beginning of June, with United manager Erik Ten Hag assuring fans that his side will give everything to prevent that from happening.

We have analysed the recent history of the FA Cup and both Manchester clubs to work out what fans can expect from the Wembley showpiece.

Who has the upper hand in Manchester?

Manchester City are set to finish above United in the Premier League for the 10th consecutive season, the last seven of which have been under Guardiola.

However, City have not had things all their own way in clashes between the two, with this campaign a case in point. Guardiola’s side suffered a 2-1 defeat at Old Trafford in January having demolished the Red Devils 6-3 at the Etihad before the World Cup.

Overall, Guardiola has won seven, drawn two and lost five of his 14 Premier League meetings with Manchester United. City’s average of 1.64 points per game against United is their third-lowest since he took charge in 2016, with only Tottenham and Liverpool (1.43) proving tougher opponents in that time.

Who has the cup final pedigree?

While both teams have suffered heartache in European finals in recent years – with City losing to Chelsea in the Champions League, and United to Villarreal in the Europa League  – they tend to produce when it matters in domestic competitions.

City have a perfect record in Wembley finals under Guardiola, winning four EFL Cups in a row between 2017-18 and 2020-21 as well as an FA Cup in 2018-19. They conceded only once in those five finals – a consolation goal in a 2-1 EFL Cup victory over Aston Villa, who were captained by Jack Grealish at the time.

United have won two out of three domestic finals over the same period, with both successes coming in the EFL Cup. The first was a Zlatan Ibrahimovic-inspired 3-2 win against Southampton in 2016-17, while the second came earlier this season via a 2-0 victory over Newcastle.

Does it matter how they got here?

City have been far more impressive than United in reaching the final, with a goal difference of +17 across their five matches compared with the Red Devils’ +8.

In fact, Guardiola’s men are yet to concede a single goal in this season’s competition, becoming the first team to reach an FA Cup final without conceding since Everton in 1965-66. The Toffees went on to lift the trophy that year by beating Sheffield Wednesday 3-2 at the old Wembley stadium.

United – in contrast – are the first team to reach a final having contested a penalty shoot-out since Arsenal in 2013-14.

Reassuringly for United fans, a team’s route to the final has mattered little in recent seasons, with four of the last five finals having been won by the side with the inferior goal difference heading into the match. City’s 6-0 victory over Watford in 2019 is the only exception in that sequence – Guardiola’s side went into the final with a goal difference of +17 compared with the Hornets’ +7.

Who are the players to watch?

The majority of attacking talent on show at Wembley will be lining up in sky blue, according to data from the Premier League this season.

Among players with at least 1,000 minutes under their belts, five of the top six for goals and assists per 90 minutes are part of Guardiola’s squad.

Erling Haaland’s 32 goals and five assists place him clear at the top, ahead of team-mates Phil Foden and Kevin De Bruyne. Marcus Rashford is the only United player to rank among City’s elite, with 15 goals and four assists at a rate of 0.72 per 90 minutes.

How do City compare to United’s treble-winning team?

City are on course to join United as the only English clubs to win the Premier League, FA Cup and Champions League in the same season.

At this stage of the campaign, Guardiola’s men are outperforming Sir Alex Ferguson’s 1998-99 side. In all competitions, City have recorded more wins (35 to 28) and scored more goals (126 to 108) than United had – and this is despite playing two fewer games.

City have also been tighter than United were defensively, having conceded only 36 goals compared with 52. The only stat that sees Ferguson’s team on top is number of defeats, which stood at four after their FA Cup semi-final replay win over Arsenal (City have lost five).

However, from this point on United shifted up a gear and went unbeaten in all three major competitions to win the title by a point from Arsenal, and lift the FA Cup and Champions League trophy at the expense of Newcastle and Bayern Munich respectively. It remains to be seen whether City can do the same.