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2-1 scoreline beckons in Uruguay vs Holland semi

| 05.07.2010

Predicting the correct score in the World Cup semi-final between Uruguay and Holland should be done in the knowledge that the match is either side’s biggest for quite some time.

A 1-0 win for the Dutch is the current 5/1 favourite outcome, while a 1-1 draw is just behind at 11/2. That was the result the last time the Oranjes played in a match of such importance, duelling with Brazil at the same stage in the 1998 edition.

Uruguay’s last appearance in the final four of the competition came in 1970, also against Brazil, who ended their hopes with a 3-1 win. Another loss of that score for Uruguay is a 10/1 shot.

The only previous World Cup meeting between the nations came at the first group phase of the 1974 tournament, when the Total Football machine triumphed 2-0. Curiously, Diego Forlan’s father Pablo featured in that game and a repeat defeat for his son in South Africa is 6/1.

While such archaic evidence might be of interest in a purely ominous sense, its use is mainly to realise that, out of all the players in the squads, only the 35-year-old duo of Giovanni Van Bronckhorst and Andre Ooijer have experience of such a high-pressure encounter – and that was as unused subs in 98.

So recent results should be used as a gauge to work out what might happen. And from both teams’ 2010 World Cup record an obvious score springs to mind – 2-1.

Of the 10 games contested by the teams in South Africa, that tally has been the one at full-time on four occasions. It’s an 18/1 chance for Uruguay to win by that score and a 7/1 bet for Holland.

Only once has either side bettered two goals in a match – that was Uruguay’s 3-0 over South Africa, an unlikely 100/1 here.

Neither side has conceded more than one goal in a match so far, with Uruguay keeping clean sheets on three occasions and Holland doing so twice. So discounting all scores with both teams scoring at least two looks wise and backing under 3.5 goals total goals in the game seems assured (1/6).

With striker Luis Suarez and defender Jorge Fucile suspended, creative midfielder Nicolas Lodeiro injured and captain Diego Lugano carrying a knock, a victory for Holland in normal time looks overwhelmingly persuasive – that’s 8/13.

Holland have defender Gregory Van der Wiel and midfielder Nigel de Jong out through suspension, though, so their backline appears more brittle, giving Forlan reason to belive he can score at any time2/1.

Can Uruguay spring another World Cup surprise and win 1-0? They managed it against Mexico and it’s 8/1 to happen again. See the full Uruguay v Holland match betting market.



John Klee