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Germany and Spain goal totals mean correct score mystery

| 07.07.2010

Coming into this tournament it was expected that Spain (9/4 to lift the World Cup) would be the side to score the most goals, having dispatched Poland 6-0 in their final warm-up game and bagged 28 times in 10 qualifying games.

However, with all but three World Cup matches completed, it is the stereotypically ‘functional’ Germany (2/1 to win the tournament) who top the scoring chart with 13 goals in five outings, while Spain have managed to find the back of the net only six times.

These conflicting goal tallies make it a tough task to isolate the kind of score we might see in tonight’s game between the two nations.

A 1-0 Spain victory is currently the 5/1 favourite – understandable considering their last two matches have ended in this score. It’s also the way Germany fell to Serbia in the group stages and would be an exact replica of the Euro 2008 final score.

Yet with Germany creating and finishing so many chances in their last two games against a couple of football’s biggest international teams it seems unlikely their attack will be stifled here. A 4/11 bet on Germany to score seems assured.

Joachim Low’s masterly side tore Argentina to shreds in their last outing 4-0 and did a similar number on England, winning 4-1. Another 4-0 is 80/1 and would also be a repeat of their Australia win, while 4-1 is 66/1.

Spain have more defensive nous about them, though, and with a greater ability to retain the ball than any of the sides mentioned they should restrict Germany’s fluid forwards.

That David Villa has accounted for five of La Furia Roja’s goals must be a worry for Vicente Del Bosque, especially considering that six different German players have managed to score. Villa notched both in a 2-0 win over Honduras – that’s a 10/1 chance here.

Andres Iniesta is the only other Spaniard to net at this World Cup. That came in the 2-1 win over Chile, with a repeat score against Germany a 9/1 bet.

Both Germany and Spain have only taken part in one match where both teams have scored, though (a fifth of their games), suggesting the sight of each keeper picking the ball out of the net is an unlikely one.

So placing money on a 1-0 Germany win seems the wisest option. That score is a 7/1 shot and would be a repeat of the side’s triumph over Ghana and Spain’s reverse to Switzerland. Throw in Miroslav Klose to get that goal and it’s a very tempting 33/1 chance.

Can Fernando Torres spark into life and help Spain record a surprise big win? He bagged in the Euro 2008 final and could help Spain to a 3-0 – that’s 28/1 to be the correct score. See the full Germany v Spain match betting market.



John Klee