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Aston Villa can nab Old Trafford lead before Man United clinch title

| 22.04.2013

Aston Villa’s visit to Old Trafford represents a chance for Manchester United to wrap up a 20th English title, a feat they can accomplish by justifying 1/4 odds to beat their lowly visitors.

And whilst United should be expected to tie up yet another Premier League championship, there may be value to be found with regards to Villa striking first at Old Trafford.

13/2 is the price that Sir Alex Ferguson’s side come from behind to win this match, and a number of trends seem to indicate that those odds are extremely generous.

Firstly, it should be noted that the travelling Villains have taken the lead in five of the past eight meetings of these sides in all competitions, but have gone on to win only one of these encounters.

Earlier in the season too, Paul Lambert’s side raced into a 2-0 lead in the reverse fixture at Villa Park, before a trademark Red Devils comeback saw them leave with all three points via a 3-2 scoreline.

That match represented one of seven Villa games in which they have failed to turn a half-time lead into a full-time triumph this season, drawing attention to the 18/1 odds about the visitors leading after 45 minutes before succumbing to eventual defeat.

And punters should also consider the fact that the away team’s first-half goal tally on the road this season is almost double that of their second-half total, whilst the majority of United’s seasonal strikes have emanated from the closing period of matches.

Thus, the 3/1 odds about Lambert’s charges being most productive in front of goal before the 45-minute mark appeal, as does the 23/20 price that Sir Alex Ferguson’s men most regularly find the net in the second half.

Similarly, the idea of Villa failing to win a match in which they hold a half-time lead seems plausible, with that outcome available as an 8/1 chance.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.



John Klee