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Guineas run not a good Oaks omen for a Hot Snap victory

| 13.05.2013

The fact that Hot Snap was sent off favourite for the 1000 Guineas suggests that the filly is clearly well regarded and that she shouldn’t be given up on just because of a single disappointing run.

Hot Snap eventually finished ninth at Newmarket behind Sky Lantern, a rival she had previously beaten in the Neil Gwyn, potentially found wanting by the faster ground on the day.

There is a possibility that a step up from 1m to 1m4f will suit and 20/1 certainly looks a reasonable each-way price in the Epsom Oaks betting.

The one big factor against her is the poor winning record of all 1000 Guineas runners in the Oaks. In fact, the last Oaks winner to even contest the Guineas was Casual Look a decade ago

However, this does not rule out Hot Snap occupying one of the each-way places even if history suggests a victory is beyond her.

Last year, two of the first five home in the Oaks had run in the 1000 Guineas earlier in the season, with The Fugue finishing third at Epsom.

This represented the second time in three years that a Guineas runner had taken third in the Oaks, with Rumoush in 2010 improving for finishing down the field in seventh at Newmarket.

Meanwhile, at least one of the first five home in the Oaks in each of the last five years had competed in the 1000 Guineas in the same season.

The one obvious problem with backing Hot Snap is the possibility that she may not line up at Epsom.

Given that she seems to have a liking for slightly softer ground, Sir Henry Cecil may decide to miss the Oaks and head for either the Irish equivalent or the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot instead, where conditions may not be so quick.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.



Craig Kemp

Craig has written for Ladbrokes since the 2010 World Cup, having previously gained a Media & Sports Journalism degree and contributed to publications including the Racing Post. His main areas of interest are horse racing and UFC, but he is also an avid X Factor gambler and likes nothing more than indulging in a spot of Hip Hop Karaoke.