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King of Stats: Side with goals when Real Madrid and Atleti meet

| 23.05.2014

There’s never been a Champions League final quite like it, but lessons from history could point towards profitable punting in Portugal when Real Madrid take on neighbours Atletico Madrid at Benfica’s Estadio da Luz.

Carlo Ancelotti’s men are warm 17/20 favourites, with Diego Simeone’s new La Liga champions 10/3 and the draw 12/5.

By royal decree, we’ve dug down into the annals to bring you the key points of betting infomation ahead of European club football’s big day.

– The last two Champions League finals have both thrown up goalless first halves, but only three others over the 21 years since the tournament was rebranded have done likewise, with the last one coming nine seasons previously.

A single first-half goal is the deserved favourite at 6/4, having come up in nine of the 21, while 10/3 about two rates a better bet than 17/10 on a blank, as six Champions League finals have seen a pair of pre-pie efforts go in.

– Five second-half shut-outs have also occurred since 1992, but there’s been more multi-goal hauls than in the first-45 equivalent.

Two strikes is the most prevalent, with nine instances of second-half Champions League final braces thus far and, at 11/4, that seems somewhat overpriced as third-favourite behind one and zero.

– Both teams have scored in just over half of the last 21 finals, which will give punters cause to pause before lumping on the same again in Lisbon at 20/21.

However, in seven of the past nine showpieces each side had their sheets soiled, so just under 1/1 actually rates a decent bet, especially considering the opposite can be backed at far less appealing 4/5 odds.

– Under 2.5 is the 7/10 favourite in the total-goals market, which is clearly based on 10 of Atleti’s last 11 matches in all competitions shuffling below this mark.

It certainly doesn’t take enough account of Real’s last 11 fixtures seeing three-or-more scored seven times, and with that proving the case in 10 of the 21 Champions League finals, the 21/20 on over 2.5 goals in Lisbon looks the likelier punt to profit.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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Alex Fortune