The SNP’s Top 10 Targets at Westminster
According to Ladbrokes’ odds, here are the chances of the SNP holding each of their existing six seats and their top ten most likely gains:
|Seat||Winner 2010||Majority %||SNP Odds|
|Perth & Perthshire North||SNP||9.1||1/10|
|Banff & Buchan||SNP||10.5||1/10|
|Na h-Eileanan an Iar||SNP||12.8||1/5|
|Argyll & Bute||Lib-Dem||7.6||6/4|
|Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey||Lib-Dem||18.6||13/8|
|Ochil & Perthshire South||Labour||10.3||7/4|
|Ayrshire North & Arran||Labour||21.5||3/1|
|Fife North East||Lib-Dem||22.6||9/2|
|Kilmarnock & Loudoun||Labour||26.6||6/1|
|Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross||Lib-Dem||16.8||6/1|
The big unknown is how the referendum result will effect their support. The polls and the betting markets strongly suggest a NO; in that instance the party will presumably offer themselves as the best option for those who want to secure further devolved powers from Westminster. There may be quite a large number of voters receptive to that, including many who are opposed to independence.
Even if that increases their vote share, they don’t have a single “easy” target seat. Their second best chance, Argyll & Bute, saw them finish fourth in 2010. Even with a huge collapse in Lib Dem support, it’s going to be hard for them to make significant progress in seat numbers.
If Scotland votes YES in September, the voters will still be asked to elect Westminster MPs in May 2015, knowing that all of those positions will be abolished within two years. How that will effect the results is almost impossible to predict right now. For those who fancy a YES vote, there might be some value in backing the SNP at big odds in some of their less likely target seats.