Next Prime Minister: Rishi Sunak could be replaced as early as next year
Published:
Rishi Sunak could be replaced as early as next year, according to the latest next Prime Minister odds from Ladbrokes.
The bookies make it just an even-money shot for Sunak to be sent packing next year, with Kemi Badenoch at 4/1 in the next Tory leader betting, while 1/7 says Keir Starmer is Prime Minister after the next General Election.
Elsewhere, Boris Johnson is 5/1 to win a seat, with 1/20 being the price on the Conservatives not winning a majority in the General Election odds.
Alex Apati, of Ladbrokes, said: “It could be all change in Downing Street over the next 12 months or so, with Rishi Sunak priced dangerously short for a speedy Number 10 exit.
“It’s also good news for Boris backers, with the former PM now just 5/1 to win a seat at the next General Election, while the latest odds suggest he’ll do well to get his old job back any time soon.”
By-election could bring more Tory misery
Sunak faces another potentially damaging by-election after Nadine Dorries finally handed in her resignation 11 weeks after vowing to go.
The Tory former culture secretary is expected to leave her parliamentary seat on Tuesday after notifying the Chancellor of her intention to do so on Saturday.
She had come under mounting pressure – including from fellow Tory MPs – to act on her June 9 pledge to step down with “immediate effect” in protest at not getting a peerage in Boris Johnson’s resignation honours list.
Jeremy Hunt is expected to facilitate her exit from the House of Commons under the archaic process of being appointed to be Steward and Bailiff of the Three Hundreds of Chiltern on the first working day after the bank holiday.
This will enable the writ to be moved when Parliament returns on September 4 for a by-election in Ms Dorries’ Mid Bedfordshire constituency.
The electoral test threatens to cause misery for the Prime Minister as the Conservatives battle to hang on to the seat amid a slump in the national opinion polls.
The Tories will be fearing a repeat of massive defeats in two by-elections before the summer recess, when Labour overturned a 20,000 Conservative majority in Selby and Ainsty and the Liberal Democrats flipped a 19,000 blue majority in Somerton and Frome.
Mr Sunak’s party did manage to hang on to Mr Johnson’s old Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat but with a much-reduced majority.
The Conservatives’ challenge in Mid Bedfordshire could be compounded by voters’ frustration over Ms Dorries’ absenteeism as she has not spoken in the Commons since June 2022 and last voted in April.
Mr Sunak said earlier this month her constituents were not “being properly represented” as she remained in post despite promising to quit, although Ms Dorries insisted it was “nonsense” they have been ignored.
She said she was delaying her exit while she investigated why she was refused a seat in the Lords.
Ms Dorries won 60% of the vote at the 2019 general election to secure a 24,000 majority in Mid Bedfordshire, which the Conservative Party has held since 1931.
When will Rishi Sunak be replaced as Prime Minister?
2023 – 12/1
2024 – Evens
2025 or later – 10/11
Next Prime Minister odds after General Election
Keir Starmer – 1/7
Rishi Sunak – 4/1
Jeremy Hunt – 25/1
Angela Rayner – 33/1
Boris Johnson – 33/1
Kemi Badenoch – 33/1
40/1 bar
Next Conservative Leader odds
Kemi Badenoch – 4/1
Penny Mordaunt – 5/1
James Cleverly – 8/1
Jeremy Hunt – 14/1
Suella Braverman – 16/1
Boris Johnson – 20/1
Political betting specials
Boris Johnson to win a seat at the next General Election – 5/1
General Election to be called this year – 14/1
Conservatives fail to win a majority – 1/20
All odds and markets correct as of date of publication
