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Indyref betting markets swing strongly back for NO

| 11.09.2014


After YES hit an all time low of 7/4 on Wednesday, the Survation poll combined with the banking announcements have seen a huge shift in the betting markets back to NO, now 1/4 with Ladbrokes. If tonight’s YouGov shows NO back in front by a similar level, the price could quickly collapse even further. I’d say a 52-48 NO lead would be a result that would have a broadly neutral effect on the odds.

A new market up at Ladbrokes is some betting on which of the 32 council areas will have the highest YES percentage share. Everyone seems agreed that Dundee will go heavily for YES.


We’ve based our odds on the SNP share of the vote in the 2011 local elections combined with some census data on household deprivation (polls show that social classes CDE are much more likely to vote YES). You can get some further clues from the always excellent election-data site, who have broken down some recent polling by geographical area.

You can find the latest odds on our site here.



Matthew Shaddick

Matthew Shaddick has been Head of Poliical Betting at Ladbrokes since 2008. He's a writer and odds-maker with particular expertise in UK and US elections.
Also known to dabble in music, literary and other out of the way betting markets. Sometimes issues tips on horse racing and football, which are best ignored.