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UKIP favourites to win Clacton & Rochester by-elections

| 06.10.2014


The betting markets have spoken: Douglas Carswell will win Clacton on Thursday and become UKIP’s first elected MP, but Labour will hold on to Heywood & Middleton. Anything else now would be a huge shock (and a big win for the bookies, but I’m not very hopeful).

One customer had £16,000 on Labour to win Heywood at 1/16 at the weekend. We also took a £4,000 bet on UKIP’s vote share in Clacton being between 50% and 60%. We’ve now issued odds on the Clacton turnout (over or under 50%) and you can have 25/1 on “sex worker” Charlotte Rose out-polling the Lib Dems.


Rochester & Strood has turned into a very interesting betting heat. We opened up with UKIP at 2/5 when Reckless first defected; that hit Evens last week with the Tories briefly becoming favourites, but UKIP are now down to 1/2 again following the Survation poll showing them ahead.

Having spoken to a few Tories at their conference last week, it’s clear that they will be doing whatever they can to stop Reckless winning, so i think there is plenty of life left in this race.

Rochester & Strood odds

                                                                     Rochester & Strood odds


I shall be in Clacton tomorrow, standing outside the Ladbrokes on the sea front next to a blackboard with some odds scrawled on it. If anyone else is around, please come and say hello.



Matthew Shaddick

Matthew Shaddick has been Head of Poliical Betting at Ladbrokes since 2008. He's a writer and odds-maker with particular expertise in UK and US elections.
Also known to dabble in music, literary and other out of the way betting markets. Sometimes issues tips on horse racing and football, which are best ignored.