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How relevant is Golden Globes glory in quest for Bafta and Oscar success?

| 12.01.2015

Boyhood, Eddie Redmayne and Julianne Moore were the big winners after the weekend’s Golden Globes ceremony but while industry luvvies patted each other on the back our attention immediately turned to the Oscars and the Baftas.

Always on the hunt for clues, we’ve crunched the numbers to see how often Globes glory leads to success at either the Oscars or the Baftas – or both!

Read on for all the movie awards trends and the latest odds from the winners of the headline gongs over the weekend.

Best Film – Boyhood

Shooting a film over a 12-year-period was always likely to appeal to awards panellists and so it proved with Richard Linklater’s ode to adolescence taking the top gong at the Golden Globes.

But will this mean further success?

In a word, yes. The Best Film at the Globes has taken the corresponding Oscar in nine of the 14 years since the turn of the century. And while that makes an Oscar look likely a Bafta is nailed on with the Globe winner taking the British award in 11 of those years!

Latest Odds for Boyhood: Oscar – 1/16, Bafta – 1/6

Best Alternative: Theory of Everything – Oscar – 16/1, Bafta – 12/1. The Oscars’ apparent disdain for comedy rules out Birdman, while British films always fare well at the Baftas.

Best Actor – Eddie Redmayne/Michael Keaton

Eight of the last nine Best Actor Oscar winners have taken the Golden Globe in the same category and with seven of those winners taking the Drama Globe – as opposed to the Musical/Comedy award – Redmayne looks a shoo-in for the Academy Award.

Six of the last nine years have seen a clean sweep, with the Best Male picking up all three awards so expect a glittering year for Redmayne.

Latest Odds for Eddie Redmayne: Oscar – 10/11, Bafta – 4/9

Best Alternative: Steve Carell may have shocked fans with his turn in Foxcatcher but the awards buzz around the wrestling drama has died of late so Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game) – Oscar – 16/1, Bafta – 6/1 – looks the best alternative bet, especially for the Bafta.

Best Actress – Julianne Moore/Amy Adams

Seven of the last nine years have seen a clean sweep of all three awards as far as the women are concerned – again with the lean towards drama – so expect few surprises here.

The last time neither Globe winner took the Oscar or the Bafta prize was in 2001 so Moore looks as safe a bet as any.

Latest Odds for Julianne Moore: Oscar – 1/10, Bafta – 1/10

Best Alternative: Amy Adams – Oscar – 10/1, Bafta – 10/1 – Having won the Golden Globe for two years running the law of averages suggest at least one other award should come her way. If Moore is shunned no one else looks better placed to step up.

Best Director: Richard Linklater – Boyhood

Only five times since 2000 has the winner of this award not gone on to accept either the Bafta or the Oscar so the Slackers, Dazed and Confused and School of Rock director looks a sure thing to break his Academy duck this year.

Latest Odds for Richard Linklater: Oscar – 1/16, Bafta – 1/6

Best alternative: Alejando Gonzalez Inarritu is the next best guess for the Oscars at 8/1 – albeit a long shot – while James Marsh could upset the odds and get the nod from the British panel at 14/1 for Bafta glory.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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James Curtis

After studying for a degree in journalism and gaining his NCTJ, James contributed to a wide range of papers, online publications and broadcasters including the South London Press, Press Association and Sky Sports News before joining the Ladbrokes News team.