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Election 2015: Democratic crisis heads 5 best bets for May 7th

| 30.03.2015

With today’s dissolution of Parliament, the 2015 General Election officially kicked off amid much confusion over the veracity of this poll and that poll, after Labour appeared to take a surprise lead over the weekend.

We can pretty much say for certain it’s going to be a tight one, but there are a few nuggets to be had among Ladbrokes’ 100s of markets for May. Read on for five of the best.

Conservatives to win the most votes and Labour to win the most seats @ 9/2

The last time the two main parties were as close as they are now going into an election campaign was in 1974, when Harold Wilson’s reds managed to pull in 226,564 votes fewer than Ted Heath’s blues nationwide, but ended up with four more seats.

With the Tories currently 2/7 favourites to top the poll, but only 1/2 to be the most represented party in the House of Commons, and Labour Minority the 2/1 favourite in the post-election government market, another crisis of democracy can’t be ruled out.

Conservatives to win Hampstead and Kilburn @ 7/2

The Tories only lost this by 42 votes in 2010, and Labour’s Oscar-winning incumbent Glenda Jackson is stepping down after 23 years as an MP.

The Liberal Democrats were only a thousand votes behind five years ago too, and have a high-profile candidate in counter-extremism protestor Maajid Nawaz, so Labour are fighting on a couple of fronts.

You could have had 9/2 on the Tories here a few months back, but there’s still value on the table in this part of north London.

Liberal Democrats to win 21-30 seats @ 5/4

Nick Clegg’s crowd are down to fifth in the latest Ashcroft National Poll, below the Green Party, on a mere 6%. The 23% they pulled in at the last General Election looks a long way off at present.

Thankfully, their multi-lingual leader has a couple of opportunities coming up to raise his head above the parapet, starting with Thursday’s seven-way leaders’ debate, but it has become clear that the yellows will lose at least half of their 57 seats.

Ukip to claim between 11-15% of the vote @ 11/8

Having built themselves back up to 13% in Sunday’s YouGov poll, the purples will be somewhat deflated by going down to 10% in Ashcroft’s latest offering.

Somewhere between the two numbers seems about right, and considering this result would likely block Nigel Farage and co out of any coalition talks after the election, it’s a bet worth getting behind.

Two UK General Elections to be held in 2015 @ 4/1

We flagged this up as Ladbrokes’ best 2015 special at 7/1 back in December and as the polls have tightened, going back to the people is a popular wager.

In 1974, Wilson needed two bites of the cherry to secure the slightest of majorities, and it would surprise few politics watchers if either Cameron or Miliband were forced to do the same this year.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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Alex Fortune