King of Stats: Enjoy the Scottish Grand National with your Amigo
We may have spent hours perusing the credentials of the Aintree Grand National runners, only for the ‘obvious’ best horse in the race to put those stats to bed, but we are not changing tack for the Scottish equivalent.
The staying marathon at Ayr may not have the prestige of the Merseyside showcase but there’s still plenty of money to be made.
We’ve looked at the trends to make our selection for the 4m½f contest.
Coming into the race in decent form is vital, and it’s here we can dispose of the chances that have failed to put up a solid performance last time out.
Of the last 19 victors, 18 had finished in the first six on their previous start.
That damages the chances of a few near the top of the market including Catching On, Sam Winner and Benvolio who all failed to complete on their recent start.
It also pays to avoid those burdened with a big weight, with 20 of the last 21 winners being rated 143 or less.
We’ve already eliminated some of those that don’t meet that criteria, but we also bid farewell to Lie Forrit, Goonyella and Milborough.
While there hasn’t been a dominant age in this race, with 12 of the last 13 winners being aged between eight and 10, we can eliminate the few veterans, and horses younger than these years.
The Irish factor
Horses trained in Ireland have a terrible recent record in this race, with just one of the last 16 runners to make their way across the Irish Sea making the frame.
With this we eliminate the likes of Gallant Oscar and Raz De Maree as we focus on horses trained closer to home.
But just because Irish trained runners have a bad record, don’t eliminate anything with a connection to the place.
The last seven winners were either bred in the Emerald Isle or on the continent in France, so those are the breeding sheds we are looking in for this race.
We are now left with four charges, biding for our support.
Bailey’s Concerto is the first to be eliminated, because with no wins over as far as 3m yet, there’s no way we can tip him up for this contest over even further.
Stuart Crawford’s Yes Tom was the last of the finishes in the race last year, beaten 44l lengths and has gone up another 2lb in the weights since, so is passed over as well.
Carli King was an impressive winner last time out, but that was in a much lower grade, and one can’t help think he will be found out here, so preference is for AMIGO.
David Pipe’s eight-year-old only just failed to peg back the ultra-game veteran Carruthers at Newbury last time out, and a repeat of that performance will see him go close.
These extreme staying trips look to be his game, and with all the boxes ticked and a likeable attitude, he looks an outstanding 20/1 chance.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.
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