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The stats that say Porto can complete annihilation of Bayern

| 21.04.2015

As much as the 3-1 first-leg defeat that Bayern Munich suffered in their Champions League quarter-final tie with Porto shocked, the fact remains that a simple 2-0 win at the Allianz Arena is all that is required to advance the Bavarians to the next round.

Ladbrokes give that scoreline a 6/1 chance of occurring, which only goes further to highlight how rudimentary the tie could all end up looking.

There are plenty of stats to suggest that Pep Guardiola’s men will advance without bother too. They have won all four home games in this season’s competition without conceding a goal, for instance.

Another says they have won eight and lost none of their 10 home outings against Portuguese opposition and have advanced in all of their last eight two-legged ties against teams from that part of the world too.

But while those nuggets of information lean punters towards the 1/1 about the hosts qualifying for a fourth consecutive campaign, there are two in Porto’s favour that make the 4/5 on the Dragoes advancing the correct call.

First of all, Bayern have recovered defeat in the first leg of a European competition nine times, but more interestingly, have lost the tie on 11 occasions and in eight of their last 10.

They have never had the ignominy of having to overcome a 3-1 scoreline after the first leg, but have faced four two-goal deficits before and lost every single tie.

Shakhtar Donetsk were the blueprint for any side wishing to shut out the German powerhouses earlier in the competition, although they admittedly managed their goalless draw at home.

Even so, the raft of absentees Guardiola has to deal with, including Franck Ribery, Bastian Schweinsteiger and David Alaba, give Porto a fantastic chance of a claiming a huge scalp.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.

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Matt Wiggins

No idyllic sound comes close to leather on willow for Matt, whose previous experience includes stints with Spin Magazine and Surrey County Cricket Club. It's not just cricket that interests him though, with football, golf, tennis and any American sport not played on ice all high on his list of favourites.