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Can Sanders oust Clinton in Nevada despite ‘Bill effect’?

| 17.02.2016

The fight to be voted Democratic Nominee for this year’s US Presidential Election heads to Nevada this weekend, and Bernie Sanders faces his latest challenge in what is historically Clinton territory.

With South Carolina also looming for the Democrats, Sanders has his work cut out if he is to prevail in two multi-cultural states, but his 22 point New Hampshire win has seen him make inroads.

In Nevada though the 74-year-old must also try and win over thousands of people who twice voted for Bill Clinton in the 1990s and then voted for Hillary back in 2008.

The 42nd US President visited the state earlier this month to drum up support for his wife, and people queued for hours for a chance to see him.

But with some suggesting Hilary’s popularity within diverse states is solely down to her husband – the ‘Bill effect’ – it could be that Sanders runs Clinton closer than originally presumed.

Former US Secretary of State Clinton is 8/13 to win the Nevada Caucus this weekend, with Sanders the slight underdog at 6/5.

Having won in New Hampshire and driven Clinton mightily close in Iowa, Sanders has thus far made things very uncomfortable for his opponent, though the next two States are against him.

A recent CNN/OCR poll however had Clinton claiming 48 per cent of the Nevada vote, with the Vermont Senator right behind on 47 per cent.

Crucially however, it appears regular voters are in Clinton’s court, while those less frequent at the polls and the undecided are leaning towards Sanders.

How many of those irregular voters commit to a decision this weekend could have a sizeable outcome should this vote prove as close as Iowa.

A further blow to Sanders’ hopes will be Clinton’s campaign manager Robby Mook.

The 36-year-old gained much attention in 2008 when overseeing Clinton’s successful Nevada campaign against Barack Obama, and on the back of winning the popular vote, went on to lead further State wins for Clinton in Ohio, Indiana and Puerto Rico.

Mook clearly knows what it takes to bring in the Sagebrush State voters, and added to the ‘Bill effect’ Clinton really should be coming out the other side of the weekend with Nevada under her belt.

South Carolina’s primary next week would provide Hillary with a strong chance to build momentum, but failure to claim Nevada would be another blow in what has been a difficult start to her campaign.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.



Richard Marsh

Richard loves his sport, especially if it involves the sound of tyres screaming around a race track. He's not fussy though and his '90s Premier League nostalgia and knowledge of team nicknames is tough to match.