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Brexit barometer swings back towards Leave, what does it mean?

| 17.05.2016

With just over five weeks until voters go to the polls to have their say in the EU Referendum it appears that Brexit fever is going into overdrive.

Our barometer is certainly bearing the brunt with swings aplenty, mainly in the direction of Leave.

At the time of writing we make it a 25 per cent chance (11/4) that Britain votes for Brexit with Remain fairly steadfast at 75 per cent (1/4).

On Friday night we rated the chances of Brexit even higher at 29 per cent but despite that fillip it’s still worth noting the fact that the bulk of money is still for Remain.

In fact, as noted by @LadPolitics, the vast majority of political punters are piling in on the UK keeping its EU membership.

But enough about the odds. What are the polls telling us?

If you take some of them at face value then it’s clear to see that support for Brexit is far more widespread than the betting suggests.

For example, check out this Nasdaq poll. As recently as May 13 their findings suggest there is a clear appetite for Brexit with 87 per cent of respondents stating they have a ‘very strong expectation for Brexit’.

Is this just the ‘vocal minority’ of Brexiters making their opinion known or have bookies and punters alike got this one horribly wrong?

A Sunday Mirror ComRes poll also has the outcome as far less cut and dried than our betting barometer implies.

Their result was pretty much split down the middle with 33 per cent opting for Remain, 29 per cent for Leave and the remainder not sure how they’ll vote.

Everywhere you look it seems that the Brexit message is transferring into potential votes, despite the use of some high-profile intervention tactics from those on the Remain side.

However, while there has been some movement, it’ll take a fair bit more to tip both the polls and the odds in favour of a Leave outcome.

Click here for the latest EU Referendum odds and keep checking back for the latest betting news.

All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.



William Geldart

William contributed to a number of online football blogs before finally finding his pot of gold at the end of the rainbow alongside the rest of the Ladbrokes News team. Now indulging passions for football, horse racing, greyhounds, boxing and political betting. Supports Wycombe Wanderers and can be spotted at various lower league and non-league grounds across the country.