King Of Stats: Clear winner when breaking down Oaks trends
The Epsom Oaks has been a race for longshots in recent years, with four of the last five victors sent off at 20/1 or bigger.
However, it is trends that have developed over a longer period that have been used by the King Of Stats to give a better indication of who the 2016 Epsom Oaks winner will be.
Four significant trends have been used to whittle down the field of fillies, until one was left standing. Here are the results:
All of the last 10 winners had ran either once or twice previously in the same season
This trend eliminates just one of this year’s nine-runner field as Australian Queen has already hit the racecourse four times as a three-year-old. The most recent was when fifth at big odds in the Musidora Stakes.
11 of the last 14 winners finished in the first two on their final start before the Oaks
Another three falter at the second hurdle, with Diamonds Pour Moi finishing third behind fellow Oaks entrant Somehow in the Cheshire Oaks last time, Harlequeen fourth in the previously mentioned Musidora Stakes and Turret Rocks sixth in the 1,000 Guineas.
10 of the previous 14 winners had previously tasted success over 1m2f or further
Architecture’s sole success so far was in a maiden over 1m so she is discounted and Aidan O’Brien’s Minding may be a dual Group 1 winner, but the odds-on favourite has never run over further than 1m so exits the shortlist too.
This leaves fellow O’Brien duo Seventh Heaven and Somehow, alongside the supplemented Skiffle. All of this trio fit two other significant trends in that all of the last 14 winners had run within five weeks of Epsom and 10 were drawn in stall five or higher.
Somehow will break from stall six this year, Seventh Heaven is in seven and Skiffle will be positioned in stall eight.
However, the fact that this race has proved difficult to win with Irish-trained runners since the turn of the century tips the scales in favour of Skiffle from the yard of Charlie Appleby.
The Irish have supplied just three of the last 14 winners and even though these have all come from the O’Brien team, he has saddled 44 Oaks runners in this period.
Skiffle is 6/1 to win the Oaks and showed plenty of stamina when winning in Listed company last month ahead of arriving at Epsom.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.