Odds tumble on 2016 General Election after Leadsom withdrawal

The odds on Theresa May calling a General Election this year have fallen from 5/2 into just 6/4, following Andrea Leadsom’s withdrawal in the race to replace David Cameron later this year.

Leadsom’s announcement today leaves Theresa May as the only campaigner left, and it’s expected the Home Secretary will be announced as next Conservative leader shortly.

In turn, Jeremy Hunt is favourite to replace May as Home Secretary at 3/1, with Michael Gove 4/1 and Chris Grayling at 5s as the fallout from Brexit continues.

Alex Donohue of Ladbrokes said: “Leadsom’s withdrawal means May breaks a long-standing record for favourites losing Tory leadership races. The betting now suggests May’s first challenge following her coronation might be winning an early election.”

It’s 5/1 that the next General Election is called in 2017, with 2018 and 2019 both unfancied at 20s.

The most likely outcome in the bookies’ view however, is 2020 or later at 4/6.

When or if a General Election is called, the Tories are 1/3 favourites, with Labour 3/1.

Meanwhile, over in the Labour corner, Angela Eagle’s chances of ousting Jeremy Corbyn have slipped, according to the our political traders with her odds drifting from 5/2 to 7/2.

Owen Smith’s odds have come in to 4/1, but Corbyn is now 8/11 to survive the calendar year.

And as for the EU, 3/1 says another UK-wide Referendum will be held before the end of 2020, while it’s 6/4 that the UK is still a full member of the European Union by January 1 2020.

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All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing.