This lively Lincoln longshot can start the Flat season with a bang
Published:
The traditional British Flat Racing season curtain-raiser is on the horizon with the Lincoln Handicap the feature contest this weekend.
A typically competitive field of 22 will go to post at Doncaster and with just two winning favourites from the last 10 runnings we’ve decided to swerve the market leaders (it’s important to note that the 2006 and 2007 renewals were held at Redcar and Newcastle respectively).
We’ll give brief mention to the jolly first though.
Yuften is easy to back following his win in a valuable 1m handicap on Champions Day last October. The gelded six-year-old’s third on his seasonal reappearance at Wolverhampton was also respectable enough.
But with the last six Lincoln winners ranging from 12/1 to 25/1 we just have to look elsewhere for greater value.
Four-year-olds have a decent recent record having taken seven of the last 14 renewals. That immediately leads us to the Richard Hannon Jr-trained Oh This Is Us.
He’ll have Ryan Moore in the saddle for this latest assignment. A win over 7f at Town Moor last November is noteworthy but he’s gone up 4lbs since then and there are stronger contenders over Saturday’s trip.
David O’Meara has acquired Bravery from Aidan O’Brien and last year’s Irish 2000 Guineas fourth isn’t easily dismissed.
However, since the year 2000, only two winners have carried more than 9-4. So, if you’re if that way inclined, you can draw a line through seven of the listed entrants.
Taking that into account, and sticking with the four-year-olds, Richard Fahey’s DOLPHIN VISTA is one that sticks out for us.
In betting terms, this son of Zoffany is the second-string of five Fahey runners behind stablemate Third Time Lucky.
But the trends suggest otherwise, especially when you also throw in the fact that 10 of the last 14 winners have come from stall nine or higher (Dolphin Vista will take the stall 10 berth).
Fahey took the Lincoln in 2012 and 2015 and we reckon the Yorkshire saddler has another cracking chance of landing this prestigious prize.
Ladbrokes Latest Betting:
2017 Lincoln Handicap
Yuften – 4/1
Donncha – 7/1
Bravery – 12/1
Oh This Is Us – 12/1
Third Time Lucky – 12/1
Top Notch Tonto – 12/1
Battle of Marathon – 14/1
Dolphin Vista – 16/1
Gabrial – 16/1
18/1 bar
Click here for the latest Lincoln odds.
All Odds and Markets are correct as of the date of publishing
