Argentina v Croatia: Russia runners-up can wipe smile off Messi’s face
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World Cup 2022: Argentina v Croatia betting tips and odds
Lionel Messi’s quest to crown a glorious career with a World Cup trophy continues on Tuesday when Argentina face Croatia in the first semi-final.
The two-time winners overcame a stirring comeback from the Netherlands by the narrowest of margins in a penalty shoot-out on Friday night to reach the last four and they are 4/5 favourites in the World Cup odds to beat the Croats inside 90 minutes or 13/8 to lift the trophy.
Croatia put themselves on the brink of their second successive World Cup final with a penalty shoot-out victory over tournament favourites Brazil on the same day and are 4/1 for more success against a South American team or 19/10 to reach the final.
Draw the conclusion for familiar foes
Messi stole the show once again in Argentina’s quarter-final with a sensational reverse pass to set up the opener for Nahuel Molina and then converted a penalty to make it four goals for the tournament to boost his hopes of winning the Golden Boot.
An inspired substitution by Dutch coach Louis van Gaal saw former Burnley striker Wout Weghorst pull one back with a well-directed header and equalised with a brilliantly worked free-kick deep into stoppage time.
However, Aston Villa goalkeeper Emilano Martinez then took centre stage as his penalty-saving masterclass sent Argentina into their sixth World Cup semi-final.
Interestingly, the Albiceleste have never lost in the last four on the greatest stage of all, but Croatia have an incredible record in knockout games, winning eight of the last nine at major tournaments either in extra time or on penalties.
Most famously, the Balkans nation beat England in the extra 30 minutes in Russia four years ago to reach the final, so they will have no fear should they require an extra half an hour or more on Tuesday night.
8 of Croatia's last 9 tournament KO games have gone to extra time:
EC 08 v Turkey (QF) ✅
EC 16 v Portugal (L16) ✅
WC 18 v Denmark (L16) ✅
WC 18 v Russia (QF) ✅
WC 18 v England (SF) ✅
WC 18 v France (F) ❌
EC 20 v Spain (L16) ✅
WC 22 v Japan (L16) ✅
WC 22 v Brazil (QF) ✅— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) December 9, 2022
Indeed, Zlatko Dalic’s side crushed Argentina 3-0 in the group stage of the 2018 World Cup but have drawn four of their five matches in Qatar and that looks the way to go once more as the first of our Argentina v Croatia betting tips at 9/4.
At slightly higher odds in the World Cup betting, we go 5/2 on the match ending either 0-0 or 1-1 which was the case in all four of Croatia’s draws or for those who like the correct score market, three of their matches were goalless at the end of 90 minutes and that outcome can be backed at 6/1, while a 1-1 draw is 11/2. Draw HT/Draw FT is available at 13/4.
Croatia can go extra mile
Bearing in mind Croatia’s almost invincible record in knockout matches, Argentina may try extra hard to get the job done in 90 minutes, but standing in their way is Dominik Livakovic, who made 11 saves in 120 minutes against Brazil and was the hero in the penalty shoot-out for the second successive match.
The Dinamo Zagreb keeper saved four shots from Neymar alone and if he continues to pull out all the stops even Messi’s magical left foot may not be enough to send Argentina through.
As we’ve already nailed our mast to the draw it’s a tough choice between Croatia to win in extra time or penalties at 16/1 or 9/1 respectively.
Croatia’s 4-1 comeback win against Canada was an outlier to most of their results at this World Cup which have been dominated by 0-0 draws. It’s no surprise to see that under 2.5 goals is priced at 1/2, but for the next of our Argentina v Croatia betting tips we’re on board a goalless first half at 5/4 which would have paid out in three of the underdogs’ matches.
On the goalscoring front, Messi has four goals at the World Cup, one behind PSG team-mate Kylian Mbappe, and is 11/4 to win the Golden Boot.
Although Messi’s main priority is winning the World Cup for the first time since 1986, finishing as the tournament’s top scorer would be the icing on the cake, so the 35-year-old maestro to score at any time looks interesting at 5/4 in the Argentina v Croatia odds bearing in mind he has had 13 shots on target in Qatar, three more than the next highest, Mbappe.
A spot in the #FIFAWorldCup final is up for grabs in this one 🔥
— FIFA World Cup (@FIFAWorldCup) December 9, 2022
Of the outsiders, Atletico Madrid right-back Molina looks well priced at 16/1 to get on the scoresheet again or 33/1 to break the deadlock again.
From the Croatia contingent, Ivan Perisic went close to scoring against Brazil and could go one better at 9/2 to repeat his heroics against England in the 2018 semi-final.
Match Info
Where: Lusail Iconic Stadium
When: 19:00, Tuesday 13th December
How to watch: ITV
All odds and markets correct as of date of publication
