Bayern Munich vs Bayer Leverkusen: UCL Round of 16 Odds, Lineups & Predictions

Explore our detailed preview for Bayern Munich vs Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League Round of 16. Stats, predictions, and lineups for the 20:00 GMT match.

• Fixture: Bayern Munich vs Bayer Leverkusen
• UEFA Champions League – Round of 16 (First Leg)
• Date: Wednesday, 5 March 2025
• Kick-off: 20:00 GMT
• Venue: Allianz Arena, Munich
  

Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen meet for the first time in European competition, adding another layer to their long-standing Bundesliga rivalry. Bayern’s Champions League experience and formidable home record make them clear favourites, but Leverkusen’s defensive structure under Xabi Alonso could keep this tie finely balanced.

• Over 2.5 Goals: 49% probability
• Both Teams to Score: 40% probability
• Bayern Munich to Score First: 67% probability
• Win Probability: Bayern Munich: 58%, Bayer Leverkusen: 20%, Draw: 22%

Bayern have won 13 consecutive Round of 16 ties, while Leverkusen have never advanced past this stage in five attempts. Can Leverkusen’s tactical discipline frustrate Bayern, or will the home side’s firepower prove too much?

Match Prediction: Bayern Munich 2-0 Bayer Leverkusen

• No previous meetings in UEFA competitions

Bundesliga meetings:

• Bayern Munich Wins: 52
• Bayer Leverkusen Wins: 20
• Draws: 20
• Last Meeting: Leverkusen 0-0 Bayern (15 February 2025, Bundesliga)

This will be their first-ever European clash, though Bayern have dominated in domestic encounters.

Recent Matches (All Competitions)

• Win: Stuttgart 1-3 Bayern Munich (Bundesliga)
• Win: Bayern 4-0 Eintracht Frankfurt (Bundesliga)
• Draw: Bayern 1-1 Celtic (Champions League, 3-2 agg win)
• Draw: Leverkusen 0-0 Bayern (Bundesliga)
• Win: Celtic 1-2 Bayern (Champions League, 3-2 agg win)
  

Key Insights:

• Narrowly edged past Celtic in the previous round (3-2 aggregate).
• Won 24 of their last 30 home UCL matches, underlining their dominance in Munich.
• Historically superior in knockout ties against German clubs, beating Dortmund in the 2013 UCL Final.
• Vincent Kompany adjusting nicely as Bayern boss after his summer appointment.
  

• Win: Frankfurt 1-4 Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
• Win: Holstein Kiel 0-2 Leverkusen (DFB-Pokal)
• Draw: Leverkusen 0-0 Bayern (Bundesliga)
• Draw: Wolfsburg 0-0 Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
• Win: Leverkusen 3-2 Köln (DFB-Pokal

Key Insights:

• Finished 6th in the league phase, securing direct qualification for the Round of 16.
• Unbeaten in their last seven competitive matches, including clean sheets against Bayern and Wolfsburg.
• Xabi Alonso has built a well-structured defensive unit, making them difficult to break down.
• Have never won a Champions League Round of 16 tie in five attempts.
  

Strengths:

• Relentless attacking options, led by Harry Kane, Jamal Musiala, and Leroy Sané.
• Dominate possession, particularly at home.
• Experience in knockout football, having reached the quarter-finals in 12 of the last 13 seasons.

Weaknesses:

• Struggled to break down defensive setups, highlighted by their 0-0 draw vs Leverkusen last month.
• Vulnerable to aggressive pressing and counter-attacks.
  

Strengths:

• Defensively compact and tactically disciplined under Alonso.
• Quick and dangerous on the counter, using Florian Wirtz and Jeremie Frimpong’s pace.
• Strong away form in Europe, unbeaten in 5 of their last 7 UCL away games.

Weaknesses:

• Limited knockout experience, which could be a factor against Bayern’s elite mentality.
• Recent struggles in front of goal, failing to score in two of their last four matches.
  

Bayern Munich (4-2-3-1)

• Goalkeeper: Manuel Neuer
• Defenders: Konrad Laimer, Dayot Upamecano, Kim Min-Jae, Alphonso Davies
• Midfielders: Joao Palhinha, Leon Goretzka
• Attacking Midfielders: Leroy Sané, Jamal Musiala, Michael Olise
• Forward: Harry Kane

Bayer Leverkusen (3-4-3)

• Goalkeeper: Lukas Hradecky
• Defenders: Jonathan Tah, Edmond Tapsoba, Piero Hincapié
• Midfielders: Jeremie Frimpong, Granit Xhaka, Robert Andrich, Alejandro Grimaldo
• Forwards: Florian Wirtz, Victor Boniface, Amine Adli

Line-ups subject to last-minute changes.

• Bayern’s home form in the Champions League is among the best in Europe.
• Leverkusen’s defensive approach suggests a tight game, but Bayern’s attacking depth should find a breakthrough.
• Leverkusen’s lack of UCL knockout experience could be exposed against a Bayern side used to high-pressure situations.
  

• Xabi Alonso won three Bundesliga titles with Bayern as a player (2014-2017) before becoming Leverkusen’s manager.
• Bayern have won their last 13 UCL Round of 16 ties since 2011.
• Leverkusen have never won a Champions League knockout tie.
  

Bayern will look to take full control of the tie at home, while Leverkusen will hope to keep the game tight and take their chances in the second leg. Expect a tactical battle, with Bayern likely to dominate possession and create better opportunities.

Will Bayern’s knockout experience prove decisive, or can Leverkusen pull off an upset?

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All odds and markets are correct as of the date of publication.