Benfica vs FC Barcelona: UCL Round of 16 Odds, Lineups & Predictions
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Explore our detailed preview for Benfica vs Barcelona in the Champions League Round of 16. Stats, predictions, and lineups for the 20:00 GMT match.
Match Details
- Fixture: Benfica vs Barcelona
- UEFA Champions League – Round of 16 (First Leg)
- Date: Wednesday, 5 March 2025
- Kick-off: 20:00 GMT
- Venue: Estádio do SL Benfica, Lisbon
Can Benfica Stop Barcelona’s Attacking Firepower?
Benfica and Barcelona meet in the Champions League knockout stage for the first time since 2006, renewing a rivalry that saw a nine-goal thriller earlier this season, with Barça edging a 5-4 victory. With Benfica aiming for revenge on home soil and Barcelona in top form, this promises to be another explosive encounter.
Our prediction for Benfica vs Barcelona
- Over 2.5 Goals: 65% probability
- Both Teams to Score: 70% probability
- Barcelona to Score First: 60% probability
- Win Probability: Barcelona: 45%, Benfica: 30%, Draw: 25%
Barcelona are unbeaten in six matches, scoring 16 goals in their last five outings, while Benfica have only lost once at home all season. Will Benfica’s defensive structure hold firm, or will Barcelona’s attacking dominance prove too much?
Match Prediction: Benfica 2-2 Barcelona
Head-to-Head Record
- Benfica Wins: 2
- Barcelona Wins: 4
- Draws: 4
- Last Meeting: Benfica 4-5 Barcelona (21 January 2025, UEFA Champions League)
Barcelona’s dramatic stoppage-time victory in their last encounter saw Raphinha net the winner in a nine-goal epic. However, Benfica’s previous home match against Barça ended in a 3-0 victory in 2021.
Team Form and Overview
Benfica
Recent Matches (All Competitions):
- Win: Benfica 1-0 Braga (Portuguese Cup)
- Win: Benfica 3-0 Boavista (Primeira Liga)
- Draw: Benfica 3-3 Monaco (Champions League, 4-3 agg win)
- Win: Santa Clara 0-1 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- Win: Monaco 0-1 Benfica (Champions League, 4-3 agg win)
Key Insights:
- Defeated Monaco in the previous round, proving their ability to handle tough opponents.
- Unbeaten in their last four home games across all competitions.
- Seeking revenge for their heartbreaking loss to Barcelona earlier this season.
Barcelona
Recent Matches (All Competitions)
- Win: Barcelona 4-0 Real Sociedad (La Liga
- Draw: Barcelona 4-4 Atlético Madrid (Spanish Cup, eliminated on away goals)
- Win: Las Palmas 0-2 Barcelona (La Liga)
- Win: Barcelona 1-0 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
- Win: Sevilla 1-4 Barcelona (La Liga)
Key Insights:
- Finished 2nd in the league phase, securing direct qualification to the Round of 16.
- Unbeaten in 14 matches, with eleven wins and three draws.
- Scored 16 goals in their last five matches, showcasing their attacking depth.
Tactical Analysis
Benfica
Strengths:
- Formidable home record, making them tough to beat in Lisbon.
- Rapid counter-attacks, using Vangelis Pavlidis and Ángel Di María’s creativity.
- Disciplined defence, marshalled by Nicolás Otamendi and António Silva.
Weaknesses:
- Defensive struggles against elite attacks, as seen in their five-goal concession to Barcelona in January.
- Inconsistency against Spanish opposition, with just two wins in their last 12 matches vs La Liga clubs.
Barcelona
Strengths:
- Relentless attacking unit, led by Robert Lewandowski, Raphinha, and Lamine Yamal.
- Elite midfield control, featuring Pedri and De Jong.
- Experience in knockout rounds, advancing in 15 of their last 18 Round of 16 ties.
Weaknesses:
- Defensive vulnerabilities, conceding at least in their last three Champions League outings
- Struggled to contain counter-attacking teams, something Benfica will look to exploit
Predicted Lineups
Benfica (4-3-3)
- Goalkeeper: Anatoliy Trubin
- Defenders: Alexander Bah, Nicolás Otamendi, António Silva, Alvaro Carrera
- Midfielders: Fredrik Aursnes, Florentino Luís, Orkun Kökçü
- Forwards: Kerem Aktürkoglu, Vangelis Pavlidis, Angel Di Maria
Barcelona (4-3-3)
- Goalkeeper: Wojciech Szczesny
- Defenders: Jules Kounde, Inigo Martinez, Pau Cubarsí, Alejandro Balde
- Midfielders: Pedri, Marc Casado, Frenkie de Jong
- Forwards: Raphinha, Robert Lewandowski, Lamine Yamal
Line-ups subject to last-minute changes.
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Why Bet on This?
- Benfica will be highly motivated at home, especially after their last meeting with Barcelona.
- Barcelona’s attacking power makes them likely to score multiple times, but their defensive lapses leave them vulnerable.
- A high-scoring draw is the most probable outcome, setting up a thrilling second leg in Spain.
Key Stats & Facts
- Barcelona’s last Champions League knockout tie vs Benfica was in 2006 when they won 2-0 on aggregate en route to winning the competition.
- Robert Lewandowski has scored 7 goals in 6 games against Benfica, including a hat-trick in 2021.
- Raphinha has 4 assists this season in the Champions League, making him one of the top playmakers.
Expect a fast-paced and entertaining first leg, as Benfica looks to capitalise on home advantage and Barcelona aims to take control before the return leg at the Camp Nou. With both teams excelling in attack, another goal-heavy encounter seems inevitable.
Will Benfica get their revenge, or will Barcelona continue their dominance?
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All odds and markets are correct as of the date of publication.
