King George VI Chase: Key trends for the Boxing Day showpiece

The highlight of the festive season in terms of horse racing is the Kempton Christmas Festival on December 26 and 27.

The meeting features 12 quality races including Boxing Day’s prestigious Ladbrokes King George VI Chase – a Grade One National Hunt steeplechase that dates all the way back to 1937.

Nowadays, the King George VI Chase is one of the top jump races in the country, with a star-studded list of previous winners that rivals the Grand National and the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

We have analysed each of the 177 participants from the last 20 years to identify the key predictors of success at Kempton Park.

How do King George VI Chase favourites perform?

The King George is ridden over 18 fences and a distance of approximately three miles. An average of nine competitors have started the race each year since 2003, with more than a quarter of runners failing to finish.

A combination of a gruelling course and a relatively small field makes it a good race to predict. Half of the last 20 renewals have been won by the favourite in the King George VI Chase odds, with a further six going the way of the second or third-shortest priced horse.

However, there is still scope for a surprise winner, with three of the past five races having been won by horses priced in double digits beforehand. Clan Des Obeaux (2018), Frodon (2020) and Tornado Flyer (2021) all started seventh in the bookies’ pecking order before going on to triumph over the Kempton hurdles.

Who has the best record?

Seven different jockeys have won the King George VI Chase in the last eight years, with Harry Cobden – who topped the rostrum aboard Clan Des Obeaux and Bravemansgame in 2018 and 2022 respectively – being the only multiple winner.

Cobden has the best podium percentage among riders with at least three entries including one since 2020, ahead of his ex-partner Bryony Frost who triumphed on Frodon three years ago.

The 2023 King George VI Chase will be without one its most successful jockeys in Tom Scudamore, who retired in February with one win (Thistlecrack in 2016), six runner-up finishes and a third place to his name.

Meanwhile, Paul Nicholls is comfortably the most successful trainer in the history of the King George, with 13 wins in total – more than twice as many as anyone else.

Nicholls has a superb record across the last two decades, with 20 of his 34 entries having finished in the top three, but his dominance has reached new heights in recent years. Four of the past five races have been won by a horse from his stables, with Clan Des Obeaux (2018 and 2019), Frodon (2020) and Bravemansgame (2022) adding to his legend in this event.

Could we see another multiple winner?

Clan Des Obeaux is one of four multiple King George VI Chase winners trained by Nicholls, having followed in the footsteps of double victors See More Business (1997 and 1999) and Silviniaco Conti (2013 and 2014), and five-time winner Kauto Star (2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2011).

In fact, the King George has a rich history of returning winners, with 15 in total. Kauto Star holds the all-time record with five triumphs, ahead of Desert Orchid (four) and Wayward Lad (three).

With this in mind, Nicholls’ latest winner Bravemansgame – who was a full 14 lengths clear of the field in 2022 – looks set to start this year’s edition as the favourite in the King George VI Chase betting. He could become the 12th different horse to triumph in consecutive King Georges.

How much does experience matter?

Perhaps unsurprisingly given the number of multiple victors, recent results suggest that experience counts for a lot round Kempton Park.

Almost 45 per cent of returning horses have managed to finish in the top three across the last 20 races, compared with 27 per cent of first-time runners.

On the flipside, 33 per cent of debutants have failed to finish in that period, versus 19 per cent of horses that had competed at least once before.

That said, there are signs of this trend abating, with six of the last seven races having been won by a first timer. Only four of the previous 13 saw a novice cross the line in first place.

Does the King George VI Chase predict the Cheltenham Gold Cup?

Held roughly 12 weeks before the Cheltenham Festival, the King George is seen as excellent preparation for the Gold Cup.

A total of 10 Kempton winners have gone on to triumph in the following year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup. Cottage Rake was the first to do the famous double in 1948, with his feat having since been repeated by Limber Hill (1955), Saffron Tartan (1960), Arkle (1965), Desert Orchid (1988), Best Mate (2002), Kicking King (2004), Kauto Star (2006 and 2008), and Long Run (2010).

Since 2003, 11 horses have finished in the top three at the King George VI Chase before going on to do the same at the subsequent Cheltenham Gold Cup.

This includes last year’s winner Bravemansgame, who narrowly missed out on Gold Cup glory when finishing as runner-up behind Galopin Des Champs. The two leading horses jumped the final fence together before Galopin Des Champs pulled clear.

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