England v Germany: Toothless Three Lions look to end Nations League campaign with bite
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Preview, odds and England v Germany betting tips
England play their final match before the World Cup on Monday night as they wrap up an abysmal Nations League campaign against Germany.
The Three Lions were relegated from the top tier on Friday with a 1-0 defeat by Italy in Milan which prompted booing from some England fans, so the pressure is starting to mount on head coach Gareth Southgate.
Southgate’s side start as the 29/20 favourites to beat their traditional rivals, so let’s examine some of the talking points and odds in our England v Germany betting tips.
England v Germany form
England’s loss at the San Siro extended their winless to run five games and equally worrying is the fact they failed to score from open play in any of those matches.
Considered among the favourites to win the World Cup in Qatar, things have gone awry for the Euro 2020 runners-up at just the wrong time.
Nations League defeats to Hungary bookended a miserable four-game slog in June, with the 1-0 loss in Budapest followed by draws at Germany and behind closed doors against Italy.
Gareth Southgate provides his reaction to last night's defeat in Milan:
— England (@England) September 24, 2022
The 4-0 Molineux mauling against the Magyars left them at a crossroads heading to Milan, where Giacomo Raspadori secured the absentee-hit Azzurri a 1-0 victory that condemned the Three Lions to relegation.
Despite their troubles, Southgate believes England are heading in the right direction.
“It’s really difficult to pinpoint why we’re not scoring because I think we’re getting into the right areas,” the England manager said. “We had the moments we would have had in the past. We just didn’t deliver that final piece of quality.
“It’s difficult for me to be too critical of the performance. We had more possession, more shots, more shots on target. I think for large parts we played very well.
“We didn’t deal with the decisive moment defensively and we had moments where we had the chance to be more decisive in their final third and our quality wasn’t quite right.
“It’s a spell where of course ultimately results are going to be the thing that everyone reacts to but I thought there were a lot of positive signs for us as a team.”
It’s hard to agree with those sentiments, so with England having scored just once in their five Nations League games, Germany can be backed at 2/1 to win or 15/4 without conceding.
🇭🇺 Hungary beat Germany for the first time since 2004 👏👏👏
Next up? Italy on Monday for a place in the finals!#NationsLeague pic.twitter.com/XbLWQ5KJ95
— UEFA Nations League (@EURO2024) September 23, 2022
Germany have fared marginally better but are now out of contention to reach the finals following Friday’s 1-0 home defeat by group leaders Hungary, who beat their opponents in a competitive match for the first time in 68 years through Adam Szalai’s superb back heel.
With just one win in their five matches, Die Mannschaft can only finish second in the group, so it’s just pride to play for at Wembley.
Hansi Flick’s side drew their first three matches 1-1 which they followed with a 5-2 victory over Italy, during which they led 5-0 with 12 minutes remaining.
🎙️ Hansi Flick: "This defeat will not throw us off track. We know what is required of us now and this has opened our eyes a bit. We played badly in the first half and lacked confidence."#GERHUN pic.twitter.com/D48WLNpM1J
— Germany (@DFB_Team_EN) September 23, 2022
England v Germany head to head
The Three Lions are unbeaten in three meetings with Germany, a run which started with a goalless draw at Wembley five years ago when Jordan Pickford made his debut.
Goals from Raheem Sterling and Harry Kane gave England a 2-0 victory in the round of 16 at last year’s European Championship and the teams drew 1-1 in Munich back in June.
Jonas Hofmann put the hosts in front with a deflected 50th-minute shot but Kane levelled from the spot with two minutes remaining, England’s only goal of the competition.
With those results in mind, either 0-0 or 1-1 can be backed at 13/5 or for those looking for a bigger price, a goal in both halves and the match to be drawn is 6/1.
England v Germany team news
Brentford striker Ivan Toney is expected to make his debut, having been left out of the squad for the game in Milan.
Southgate started with a three-man defence on Friday, playing Bukayo Saka in an unfamiliar left-wing-back role, but switched to a back four when the Arsenal attacker was replaced by Jack Grealish, with Luke Shaw coming on for Kyle Walker, at fault for Italy’s winner.
Ben Chilwell and Marc Guehi could also start but Grealish, who made a favourable impression when he came on as a second-half sub, picked up a booking which has ruled him out of the match. However, John Stones returns from suspension.
Germany were missing Manuel Neuer, Leon Goretzka (both Covid) and Julian Brandt (illness) for the Hungary defeat.
Real Madrid’s former Chelsea centre-back Antonio Rudiger was booked in that game and serves a suspension, so either Matthias Ginter, Nico Schlotterbeck or Thilo Kehrer will start.
Goalscorer odds
England captain Kane is the 7/2 favourite to get the ball rolling or 6/4 to score any time but as it’s not certain the Tottenham striker will start the game, it’s worth waiting for the line-ups to be announced an hour before kick-off should he take your fancy.
Toney, who has scored five goals for Brentford this season, is 4/1 and 9/5 in the two options but with the Three Lions struggling for goals it may pay dividends looking at their opponents for better options in our England v Germany betting tips.
Timo Werner is the 11/2 favourite from the German camp to break the deadlock or 23/10 to net any time but he struggled to make an impact on Friday, so Kai Havertz may be a better option at 15/2 and 3/1.
Joshua Kimmich scored in both games against Italy and looks an interesting option at 22/1 to draw first blood or 9/1 just to score.
Thomas Muller had a 20-yard strike against the Magyars disallowed for offside and is 9/1 and 7/2 in the two categories while Leroy Sane, denied by Peter Gulacsi in the second half, is 8/1 and 10/3.
Match Info
Where: Wembley Stadium
When: 19:45, Monday 26th June
How to watch: Channel 4
All odds and markets correct as of date of publication
